Implicações da oferta e da demanda de etanol : comportamento de preços, interações com os mercados agrícolas e mudanças no comércio

• Autor(a) principal: Hoeckel, Paulo Henrique de Oliveira
• Data de Publicação: 2018
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da PUC_RS
• Texto Completo: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/8131
• topic: Mercado de Etanol; Oferta e Demanda; Comportamento de Preços; Commodities Agrícolas; Comércio Internacional; CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA

This doctoral dissertation presents three essays to analyze the ethanol market. At first, the aim is to specify and estimate simultaneously supply and demand equations for the Brazilian ethanol market from January 2012 to December 2016, using two-stage least squares (2SLS). The main results show that the response to variations in supply and demand is elastic for Brazil, and the response in the ethanol market to price changes is in favor of the supply. At the regional level it was found that in regions with higher production and consumption the response to changes in the price of ethanol is less elastic. The second essay aims to develop a synthesis of the world ethanol market, considering the United States and Brazil, using caloric equivalence, to empirically identify supply and demand elasticities, as well as evaluate the relation of world production to prices of agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, soy and sugar) for the period from 1981 to 2016, using as instrumental variables yield shocks induced by the climate. The main results for the world market indicate an elastic response of ethanol production and demand to changes in prices. The world production of ethanol had no significant relation with food prices, but when assessing the ethanol market and its interaction with the agricultural commodities market, the hypothesis that Brazilian ethanol has a lower magnitude relation with the price of food is verified. Finally, the third essay assesses the impacts of the international trade of ethanol, simulating new scenarios based on the discussions proposed in the literature and projections for the sector, performing the calibration of a partial equilibrium model formulated as a Mixed Complementarity Problem. The main results show that in a scenario of increased production or consumption in the Brazilian market it has a greater impact on international trade favorable to Brazilian producers and consumers when they occur together with a change in the commercial policy of removal of the import tariff to Brazilian ethanol by part of the US and the imposition of import tariff by Brazil. After the tariff change, production in Brazil has a significant increase, with a decrease in the share of domestic demand supplied by the foreign market.