Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2013 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/35524 |
Resumo: | Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. |
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Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European CrayfishesAnimal DistributionAnimalsAphanomycesAstacoideaClimate ChangeConservation of Natural ResourcesIntroduced SpeciesPopulation DynamicsSpecies SpecificityModels, TheoreticalClimate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization.El cambio clim´atico requerir´a que las especies se adapten a condiciones nuevas o que sigan a sus climas preferidos hacia mayores latitudes o elevaciones, pero muchas especies dulceacu´ıcolas de dispersi´on limitada podr´ıan ser incapaces de moverse debido a barreras impuestas por los l´ımites de las cuencas fluviales. Adicionalmente, las especies no nativas invasoras podr´ıan extenderse a nuevas regiones bajo condiciones clim´aticas futuras y contribuir a la declinaci´on de especies nativas. Evaluamos distribuciones futuras de la amenazada fauna europea de cangrejos de r´ıo en respuesta al cambio clim´atico, los l´ımites de cuencas fluviales y la expansi´on de cangrejos de r´ıo invasores, que transmiten la plaga de cangrejos de r´ıo, una enfermedad letal para los cangrejos de r´ıo europeos nativos. Utilizamos proyecciones clim´aticas de modelos de circulaci´on general y de modelos estad´ısticos basados en distancia de Mahalanobis para predecir regiones adecuadas clim´aticamente para cangrejos de r´ıo nativos e invasores en la mitad y al fin del siglo 21. Identificamos esas regiones adecuadas como accesibles o inaccesibles con base en los l´ımites de las principales cuencas fluviales y ocurrencia actual y evaluamos el futuro traslape potencial con 3 especies de cangrejos de r´ıo norteamericanos invasores. Las ´areas clim´aticamente adecuadas disminuyeron de 19% a 72% para los cangrejos de r´ıo nativos, y la mayor´ıa de las futuras ´areas adecuadas para la mayor´ıa de estas especies fueron inaccesibles en relaci´on con distribuciones nativas y actuales. Se pronostic´o el incremento del traslape con especies invasoras que transmiten la plaga de cangrejos de r´ıo. Algunas especies de cangrejos de r´ıo nativos (e.g., Astacus astacus) no tuvieron refugios futuros que fueran inadecuados para las especies no nativas consideradas en losmodelos. Nuestros resultados enfatizan la importancia de la prevenci´on de introducciones adicionales y la expansi´on de cangrejos de r´ıo invasores en Europa para minimizar las interacciones entre los m´ultiples estresantes del cambio clim´atico y las especies invasoras, y sugieren regiones candidatas para la debatida opci´on de manejo de la colonizaci´on asistida.Society for Conservation BiologyRepositório da Universidade de LisboaCapinha, CésarLarson, Eric R.Tricarico, ElenaOlden, Julian D.Gherardi, Francesca2018-11-29T10:32:48Z20132013-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/35524engCapinha, C., Larson, E. R., Tricarico, E., Olden, J. D., Gherardi, F. (2013). Effects of Climate Change, Invasive Species, and Disease on the Distribution of Native European Crayfishes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, 27(4), 731–740. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12043.1523-173910.1111/cobi.12043metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:31:36Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/35524Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:49:59.796451Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
title |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
spellingShingle |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes Capinha, César Animal Distribution Animals Aphanomyces Astacoidea Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources Introduced Species Population Dynamics Species Specificity Models, Theoretical |
title_short |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
title_full |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
title_fullStr |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
title_sort |
Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of Native European Crayfishes |
author |
Capinha, César |
author_facet |
Capinha, César Larson, Eric R. Tricarico, Elena Olden, Julian D. Gherardi, Francesca |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Larson, Eric R. Tricarico, Elena Olden, Julian D. Gherardi, Francesca |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Capinha, César Larson, Eric R. Tricarico, Elena Olden, Julian D. Gherardi, Francesca |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Animal Distribution Animals Aphanomyces Astacoidea Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources Introduced Species Population Dynamics Species Specificity Models, Theoretical |
topic |
Animal Distribution Animals Aphanomyces Astacoidea Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources Introduced Species Population Dynamics Species Specificity Models, Theoretical |
description |
Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z 2018-11-29T10:32:48Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/35524 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/35524 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Capinha, C., Larson, E. R., Tricarico, E., Olden, J. D., Gherardi, F. (2013). Effects of Climate Change, Invasive Species, and Disease on the Distribution of Native European Crayfishes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, 27(4), 731–740. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12043. 1523-1739 10.1111/cobi.12043 |
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metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Society for Conservation Biology |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Society for Conservation Biology |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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