Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53561 |
Resumo: | We estimated the potential impact of Global Warming on the species richness of Iberian butterflies. First, we determined the grid size that maximized the balance between geographic resolution, area coverage and environmental representativeness. Contemporary richness was modelled in several alternative ways that differed in how sampling effort was controlled for, and in whether the non-climatic variables (physiography, lithology, position) were incorporated. The results were extrapolated to four WorldClim scenarios. Richness loss is to be expected for at least 70% of the area, with forecasts from the combined models being only slightly more optimistic than those from the purely climatic ones. Overall, the most intense losses are predicted for areas of highest contemporary species richness, while the potential slightly positive or nearly neutral changes would most often concentrate in cells of low to moderate present richness. The environmental determinants of richness might not be uniform across the geographical range of sampling effort, suggesting the need of additional data from the least intensively surveyed areas. |
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Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variablesWe estimated the potential impact of Global Warming on the species richness of Iberian butterflies. First, we determined the grid size that maximized the balance between geographic resolution, area coverage and environmental representativeness. Contemporary richness was modelled in several alternative ways that differed in how sampling effort was controlled for, and in whether the non-climatic variables (physiography, lithology, position) were incorporated. The results were extrapolated to four WorldClim scenarios. Richness loss is to be expected for at least 70% of the area, with forecasts from the combined models being only slightly more optimistic than those from the purely climatic ones. Overall, the most intense losses are predicted for areas of highest contemporary species richness, while the potential slightly positive or nearly neutral changes would most often concentrate in cells of low to moderate present richness. The environmental determinants of richness might not be uniform across the geographical range of sampling effort, suggesting the need of additional data from the least intensively surveyed areas.SpringerRepositório da Universidade de LisboaGarcía-Barros, EnriqueCancela, JPLobo, Jorge M.Munguira, Miguel L.Romo, Helena2022-06-29T18:15:22Z20222022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/53561engGarcía-Barros, E., Cancela, J.P., Lobo, J.M. et al. Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables. J Insect Conserv (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-022-00406-210.1007/s10841-022-00406-2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:59:24Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/53561Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:04:29.775433Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
title |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
spellingShingle |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables García-Barros, Enrique |
title_short |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
title_full |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
title_fullStr |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
title_sort |
Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables |
author |
García-Barros, Enrique |
author_facet |
García-Barros, Enrique Cancela, JP Lobo, Jorge M. Munguira, Miguel L. Romo, Helena |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cancela, JP Lobo, Jorge M. Munguira, Miguel L. Romo, Helena |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
García-Barros, Enrique Cancela, JP Lobo, Jorge M. Munguira, Miguel L. Romo, Helena |
description |
We estimated the potential impact of Global Warming on the species richness of Iberian butterflies. First, we determined the grid size that maximized the balance between geographic resolution, area coverage and environmental representativeness. Contemporary richness was modelled in several alternative ways that differed in how sampling effort was controlled for, and in whether the non-climatic variables (physiography, lithology, position) were incorporated. The results were extrapolated to four WorldClim scenarios. Richness loss is to be expected for at least 70% of the area, with forecasts from the combined models being only slightly more optimistic than those from the purely climatic ones. Overall, the most intense losses are predicted for areas of highest contemporary species richness, while the potential slightly positive or nearly neutral changes would most often concentrate in cells of low to moderate present richness. The environmental determinants of richness might not be uniform across the geographical range of sampling effort, suggesting the need of additional data from the least intensively surveyed areas. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-06-29T18:15:22Z 2022 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53561 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53561 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
García-Barros, E., Cancela, J.P., Lobo, J.M. et al. Forecasts of butterfly future richness change in the southwest Mediterranean. The role of sampling effort and non-climatic variables. J Insect Conserv (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-022-00406-2 10.1007/s10841-022-00406-2 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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