What 'hides' behind sovereign debt ratings?"

• Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
• Data de Publicação: 2006
• Outros Autores: Gomes, Pedro, Rother, Philipp
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2657
• topic: Credit Ratings; Sovereign Debt; Rating Agencies; Panel Data; Random Effects Ordered Probit

In this paper we study the determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings using rating notations from the three main international rating agencies, for the period 1995-2005. We employ panel estimation and random effects ordered probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of several macroeconomic and public governance variables. Our results point to a good performance of the estimated models, across agencies and across the time dimension, as well as a good overall prediction power. Relevant explanatory variables for a country's credit rating are: GDP per capita, GDP growth, government debt, government effectiveness indicators, external debt, external reserves, and default history.