Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area
Main Author: | |
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Publication Date: | 2021 |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Source: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Download full: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/30933 |
Summary: | We describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States. |
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Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro AreaEuro AreaCore and peripheryStylized factsMacroeconomic policyPlace-based approachWe describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States.Taylor & FrancisVeritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaCosta, LeonardoOliveira, Francisca Guedes deLeitão, AlexandraParedes, José2021-12-26T01:30:23Z20212021-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/30933engCosta, L., Oliveira, F. G. D., Leitão, A., & Paredes, J. (2021). Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area. European Planning Studies, 29(4), 654–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2020.17664240965-431310.1080/09654313.2020.17664241469-594485087482766000549624300001info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-02T01:34:55Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/30933Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:24:52.044936Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
title |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
spellingShingle |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area Costa, Leonardo Euro Area Core and periphery Stylized facts Macroeconomic policy Place-based approach |
title_short |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
title_full |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
title_fullStr |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
title_sort |
Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area |
author |
Costa, Leonardo |
author_facet |
Costa, Leonardo Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de Leitão, Alexandra Paredes, José |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de Leitão, Alexandra Paredes, José |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Costa, Leonardo Oliveira, Francisca Guedes de Leitão, Alexandra Paredes, José |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Euro Area Core and periphery Stylized facts Macroeconomic policy Place-based approach |
topic |
Euro Area Core and periphery Stylized facts Macroeconomic policy Place-based approach |
description |
We describe the neoclassical view of the business cycle by European Institutions in the Euro Area, and derive the stylized facts of business cycles and trends for Germany and Portugal in the period 1991–2018. The data are extracted from the European Commission’s AMECO database. To separate cycle and trend, we use the decomposition available in the AMECO database for the output, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the other variables. The results show that the amplitude of the business cycle and persistence of shocks are greater in Portugal than in Germany. They also show that the stylized facts of the business cycles of the two economies are quite different. Moreover, common shocks have asymmetric consequences. In the long run, there has been a convergence of inflation, general government structural balances, and real unit labour costs, but general government consolidated gross debt, fixed investment, and per capita potential GDP have been increasingly diverging, despite the behaviour of real wages and net exports in the two countries. Additionally, temporary shocks have permanent effects on the Portuguese economy. The results raise questions about the place-neutral macroeconomic policy enforced by the European institutions in the Euro Area, particularly in what concerns cohesion Member States. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-12-26T01:30:23Z 2021 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/30933 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/30933 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Costa, L., Oliveira, F. G. D., Leitão, A., & Paredes, J. (2021). Business cycles and trends in Germany and Portugal: macroeconomic policy implications in the Euro Area. European Planning Studies, 29(4), 654–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2020.1766424 0965-4313 10.1080/09654313.2020.1766424 1469-5944 85087482766 000549624300001 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Taylor & Francis |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799131961694879744 |