Examining the connection between economic growth, tourism, and terrorism in Council of Europe countries

• Autor(a) principal: Pina, Ângela Sofia Laiginhas
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/11452
• topic: Análise Em Painel; Conselho da Europa; Crescimento Económico; Globalização; Terrorismo; Turismo; Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão

This dissertation intends to examine the connections between economic growth, measured by Gross Domestic Product, international tourism, and terrorism for thirtythree Council of Europe countries. The period considered for the analysis includes data from 1995 to 2018. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model method was selected to measure the short-and long term impacts. The effects of globalization and the real effective exchange rate were also considered. Two econometric models were estimated. The presence of cross-sectional dependence, heteroscedasticity, and first-order autocorrelation in the models implied the use of the Driscoll & Kraay (1998) estimator. In Model I, the impact of economic growth on international tourism in the Council of Europe countries was verified. In Model II, the impact of international tourism on economic growth in the Council of Europe countries was verified. Both were positive and statistically significant in the short term. However, in the long term analysis, only the positive impact of international tourism on economic growth in the Council of Europe countries was verified. Through Model I, it was still possible to verify the positive impact, short and long term, of globalization on international tourism; the positive, short term, impact of the real effective exchange rate on international tourism; and finally, the negative impact, in the short and long term, of terrorism on international tourism. Model II also made it possible to verify the positive long term impact of globalization on economic growth. No statistically significant results were found between terrorism and economic growth in the Council of Europe countries. The results found here support the decision-makers of the Council of Europe to develop public measures that promote tourism activities. At the same time, they can propose measures to increasingly reduce terrorism and develop measures to encourage the attraction and capture of international tourism through the intrinsic advantages of the phenomenon of globalization.