A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11199 |
Resumo: | According to Olivier Blanchard, one of the silver linings of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has been to jolt macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy and to demonstrate some of the shortcomings of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. In this thesis we tried to present an alternative or complementary approach to the referred models, an approach based on the stock-flow consistent models of Godley and Lavoie and on the complexity theory approach championed by Steve Keen. Its main characteristics are: the possibility of integration of the real economy with a well-developed financial sector; a holistic view of the economy, in which sectoral balances take center stage; the acknowledgement of the principle of fundamental uncertainty, rejecting the hypothesis of rational expectations; the recognition of the monetary nature of the economy, the role of debt and the endogeneity of money; and the rejection of the methodological equilibration of neoclassical theory with the economy being seen, instead, as basically in constant disequilibrium. Based on this principles we built a model of the Portuguese economy, in order to analyze the austerity policies applied in the last years in our country. In a first phase, our work consisted in building a benchmark model that replicated the 2008-2013 period. In a second stage, we changed some of the variables, recreating alternative scenarios and options, and analyzed the results obtained comparing them with the benchmark case. More than precise answers, the goal of this work is to contribute to an informed intuition of the functioning of the Portuguese economy. |
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A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economyMacroeconomic modellingStock-flow consistent modelsEuro-zone crisisAusterityModelos stock-flow consistentModelos macroeconómicosCrise da zona EuroPolíticas de austeridadeAccording to Olivier Blanchard, one of the silver linings of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has been to jolt macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy and to demonstrate some of the shortcomings of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. In this thesis we tried to present an alternative or complementary approach to the referred models, an approach based on the stock-flow consistent models of Godley and Lavoie and on the complexity theory approach championed by Steve Keen. Its main characteristics are: the possibility of integration of the real economy with a well-developed financial sector; a holistic view of the economy, in which sectoral balances take center stage; the acknowledgement of the principle of fundamental uncertainty, rejecting the hypothesis of rational expectations; the recognition of the monetary nature of the economy, the role of debt and the endogeneity of money; and the rejection of the methodological equilibration of neoclassical theory with the economy being seen, instead, as basically in constant disequilibrium. Based on this principles we built a model of the Portuguese economy, in order to analyze the austerity policies applied in the last years in our country. In a first phase, our work consisted in building a benchmark model that replicated the 2008-2013 period. In a second stage, we changed some of the variables, recreating alternative scenarios and options, and analyzed the results obtained comparing them with the benchmark case. More than precise answers, the goal of this work is to contribute to an informed intuition of the functioning of the Portuguese economy.Segundo Olivier Blanchard, a crise financeira de 2007-2008 veio abanar a macroeconomia e pôr a nu as insuficiências dos modelos de eleição da teoria Neoclássica, os modelos DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium). Nesta tese procurámos apresentar uma abordagem alternativa ou complementar aos referidos modelos DSGE, baseada nos princípios dos modelos stock-flow consistent de Godley e Lavoie e inspirada na teoria de sistemas complexos defendida por Steve Keen. As suas principais características são: a possibilidade de integração de um sector financeiro bem desenvolvido com a economia real; uma visão holística da economia baseando-se numa análise sectorial da mesma; o principio da incerteza fundamental, rejeitando assim a hipótese de expectativas racionais; o reconhecimento da natureza monetária da economia, da dívida e da endogeneidade do dinheiro; e a visão de que a economia se encontra em constante desequilíbrio. Assente nestes princípios, construímos um modelo da Economia Portuguesa que nos permitiu analisar as políticas de austeridade que foram aplicadas em Portugal nos últimos anos. Para isso, numa primeira fase, foi construído e calibrado um modelo de referência que replica o período de 2008 a 2013. Numa segunda fase foram alteradas algumas variáveis desse mesmo modelo, recriando cenários e opções politicas alternativas que foram depois analisadas e comparadas com o modelo de referência. Mais do que respostas precisas, o objectivo deste exercício é de contribuir para uma ‘intuição informada’ do funcionamento da economia Portuguesa2016-04-14T16:52:53Z2015-01-01T00:00:00Z20152015-10info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfapplication/octet-streamhttp://hdl.handle.net/10071/11199TID:201023334engSousa, Pedro Oliveira Pratas einfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-09T17:35:36Zoai:repositorio.iscte-iul.pt:10071/11199Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:16:06.111452Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
title |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
spellingShingle |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy Sousa, Pedro Oliveira Pratas e Macroeconomic modelling Stock-flow consistent models Euro-zone crisis Austerity Modelos stock-flow consistent Modelos macroeconómicos Crise da zona Euro Políticas de austeridade |
title_short |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
title_full |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
title_fullStr |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
title_full_unstemmed |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
title_sort |
A stock-flow consistent model of the portuguese economy |
author |
Sousa, Pedro Oliveira Pratas e |
author_facet |
Sousa, Pedro Oliveira Pratas e |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Sousa, Pedro Oliveira Pratas e |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomic modelling Stock-flow consistent models Euro-zone crisis Austerity Modelos stock-flow consistent Modelos macroeconómicos Crise da zona Euro Políticas de austeridade |
topic |
Macroeconomic modelling Stock-flow consistent models Euro-zone crisis Austerity Modelos stock-flow consistent Modelos macroeconómicos Crise da zona Euro Políticas de austeridade |
description |
According to Olivier Blanchard, one of the silver linings of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has been to jolt macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy and to demonstrate some of the shortcomings of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. In this thesis we tried to present an alternative or complementary approach to the referred models, an approach based on the stock-flow consistent models of Godley and Lavoie and on the complexity theory approach championed by Steve Keen. Its main characteristics are: the possibility of integration of the real economy with a well-developed financial sector; a holistic view of the economy, in which sectoral balances take center stage; the acknowledgement of the principle of fundamental uncertainty, rejecting the hypothesis of rational expectations; the recognition of the monetary nature of the economy, the role of debt and the endogeneity of money; and the rejection of the methodological equilibration of neoclassical theory with the economy being seen, instead, as basically in constant disequilibrium. Based on this principles we built a model of the Portuguese economy, in order to analyze the austerity policies applied in the last years in our country. In a first phase, our work consisted in building a benchmark model that replicated the 2008-2013 period. In a second stage, we changed some of the variables, recreating alternative scenarios and options, and analyzed the results obtained comparing them with the benchmark case. More than precise answers, the goal of this work is to contribute to an informed intuition of the functioning of the Portuguese economy. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-01-01T00:00:00Z 2015 2015-10 2016-04-14T16:52:53Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11199 TID:201023334 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11199 |
identifier_str_mv |
TID:201023334 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/octet-stream |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799134718988386304 |