Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Rocha, H.
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Dias, J. M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.018
Resumo: Durum wheat is an important crop in semi-arid Mediterranean regions as Andalusia, an autonomous community in the southern part of Spain. Accurate early predictions of durum wheat yield can provide precious information for within-season adjustment of crop managing as well as for economical and political stakeholders. In this study, an alternative methodology to mechanistic crop models is proposed for within-season early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain based on estimates for its larger producer community, Andalusia. The proposed mathematical framework embeds the construction of Radial Basis Functions (RBF) interpolation models based on the sown area and a large number of climatic variables. Global warming and increasing occurrence of extreme weather events are only two of the factors that make crop yield forecast extremely difficult as they can lead to an increased interannual yield variability. Nevertheless, the RBF models proposed presented good quality yield predictions clearly outperforming multivariate linear models used as benchmark. Moreover, RBF models' predictions made four months prior to harvest are able to capture the trend of the yield series as well as near-harvest predictions.
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spelling Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic dataRadial Basis FunctionsCross-validationVariable ScreeningDurum wheatDurum wheat is an important crop in semi-arid Mediterranean regions as Andalusia, an autonomous community in the southern part of Spain. Accurate early predictions of durum wheat yield can provide precious information for within-season adjustment of crop managing as well as for economical and political stakeholders. In this study, an alternative methodology to mechanistic crop models is proposed for within-season early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain based on estimates for its larger producer community, Andalusia. The proposed mathematical framework embeds the construction of Radial Basis Functions (RBF) interpolation models based on the sown area and a large number of climatic variables. Global warming and increasing occurrence of extreme weather events are only two of the factors that make crop yield forecast extremely difficult as they can lead to an increased interannual yield variability. Nevertheless, the RBF models proposed presented good quality yield predictions clearly outperforming multivariate linear models used as benchmark. Moreover, RBF models' predictions made four months prior to harvest are able to capture the trend of the yield series as well as near-harvest predictions.Elsevier2019info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.018eng01681699https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169918312985Rocha, H.Dias, J. M.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-05-25T04:11:49Zoai:estudogeral.uc.pt:10316/88872Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:09:19.619119Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
title Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
spellingShingle Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
Rocha, H.
Radial Basis Functions
Cross-validation
Variable Screening
Durum wheat
title_short Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
title_full Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
title_fullStr Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
title_full_unstemmed Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
title_sort Early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain using radial basis functions interpolation models based on agroclimatic data
author Rocha, H.
author_facet Rocha, H.
Dias, J. M.
author_role author
author2 Dias, J. M.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Rocha, H.
Dias, J. M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Radial Basis Functions
Cross-validation
Variable Screening
Durum wheat
topic Radial Basis Functions
Cross-validation
Variable Screening
Durum wheat
description Durum wheat is an important crop in semi-arid Mediterranean regions as Andalusia, an autonomous community in the southern part of Spain. Accurate early predictions of durum wheat yield can provide precious information for within-season adjustment of crop managing as well as for economical and political stakeholders. In this study, an alternative methodology to mechanistic crop models is proposed for within-season early prediction of durum wheat yield in Spain based on estimates for its larger producer community, Andalusia. The proposed mathematical framework embeds the construction of Radial Basis Functions (RBF) interpolation models based on the sown area and a large number of climatic variables. Global warming and increasing occurrence of extreme weather events are only two of the factors that make crop yield forecast extremely difficult as they can lead to an increased interannual yield variability. Nevertheless, the RBF models proposed presented good quality yield predictions clearly outperforming multivariate linear models used as benchmark. Moreover, RBF models' predictions made four months prior to harvest are able to capture the trend of the yield series as well as near-harvest predictions.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872
http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.018
url http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88872
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2019.01.018
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 01681699
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169918312985
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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instacron:RCAAP
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instacron_str RCAAP
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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