The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25505 |
Resumo: | We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization,between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1%fall in the price level is associated with an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23–0.33 percentagepoints and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute valueof the coefficient on deflation. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statisticallysignificant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant tochanges in prices. Moreover, a 1% decrease in the price level is associated with a rise in the revenue toGDP ratio of about 0.02 percentage points, a reverse Olivera-Tanzi effect. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalizationDebtInflationLocal ProjectionImpulse Response FunctionsGMMCross-Sectional DependenciesBusiness cycleWe study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization,between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1%fall in the price level is associated with an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23–0.33 percentagepoints and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute valueof the coefficient on deflation. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statisticallysignificant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant tochanges in prices. Moreover, a 1% decrease in the price level is associated with a rise in the revenue toGDP ratio of about 0.02 percentage points, a reverse Olivera-Tanzi effect.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João Tovar2022-09-15T10:14:04Z20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25505engAfonso, António and João Tovar Jalles.(2019). "The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization" .The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 74: pp. 129-147.1062-976910.1016/j.qref.2019.01.016info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:55:04Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25505Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:09:21.813839Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
spellingShingle |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization Afonso, António Debt Inflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Cross-Sectional Dependencies Business cycle |
title_short |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_full |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_fullStr |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_full_unstemmed |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
title_sort |
The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Debt Inflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Cross-Sectional Dependencies Business cycle |
topic |
Debt Inflation Local Projection Impulse Response Functions GMM Cross-Sectional Dependencies Business cycle |
description |
We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization,between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1%fall in the price level is associated with an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23–0.33 percentagepoints and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute valueof the coefficient on deflation. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statisticallysignificant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant tochanges in prices. Moreover, a 1% decrease in the price level is associated with a rise in the revenue toGDP ratio of about 0.02 percentage points, a reverse Olivera-Tanzi effect. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022-09-15T10:14:04Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25505 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25505 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António and João Tovar Jalles.(2019). "The fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the golden age of globalization" .The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 74: pp. 129-147. 1062-9769 10.1016/j.qref.2019.01.016 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131188430897152 |