Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/144314 |
Resumo: | Air pollution is a major concern issue for most countries in the world. In Portugal and Macao, the values of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) are frequently above the concentration thresholds accepted as “good air quality.” Portugal follows the European Union (EU) legislation (Directive 2008/50/EC) on air quality and Macao the air quality guidelines (AQG) from the WHO. Air quality forecasts are very important mitigation tools because of their ability to anticipate pollution events, and issue early warnings, allowing to take preventive measures and reduce impacts, by avoiding exposure. The work presented here refers to the statistical forecast of air pollutants for three regions: Greater Lisbon Area, Madeira Autonomous Region (both located in Portugal), and Macao Special Administrative Region (in Southern China). The presented statistical approach combines Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and multiple regression (MR) analysis to obtain optimized regression models. This consolidated methodology is now in operation for more than a decade in Portugal, and is subject to regular updates that reflect the ongoing research and the changes in the air quality monitoring network. Recently, the same methodology was applied to Macao in collaboration with the Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG). Here, a statistical approach for air quality forecasting is described that has been proven to be successful, being able to forecast PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations, for the next day, with a good performance. In general, all the models have shown a good agreement between the observed and forecasted concentrations (with R2 from 0.50 to 0.89), and were able to follow the concentration evolution trend. For some cases, there is a slight delay in the prediction trend. Moreover, the results obtained for pollution episodes have proven that statistical forecast can be an effective way of protecting public health. |
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Air Quality Forecast by Statistical MethodsApplication to Portugal and Macaoair qualityclassification and regression treesmultiple regressionnitrogen dioxideozoneparticulate matterArtificial IntelligenceComputer Science (miscellaneous)Information SystemsSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingAir pollution is a major concern issue for most countries in the world. In Portugal and Macao, the values of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) are frequently above the concentration thresholds accepted as “good air quality.” Portugal follows the European Union (EU) legislation (Directive 2008/50/EC) on air quality and Macao the air quality guidelines (AQG) from the WHO. Air quality forecasts are very important mitigation tools because of their ability to anticipate pollution events, and issue early warnings, allowing to take preventive measures and reduce impacts, by avoiding exposure. The work presented here refers to the statistical forecast of air pollutants for three regions: Greater Lisbon Area, Madeira Autonomous Region (both located in Portugal), and Macao Special Administrative Region (in Southern China). The presented statistical approach combines Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and multiple regression (MR) analysis to obtain optimized regression models. This consolidated methodology is now in operation for more than a decade in Portugal, and is subject to regular updates that reflect the ongoing research and the changes in the air quality monitoring network. Recently, the same methodology was applied to Macao in collaboration with the Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG). Here, a statistical approach for air quality forecasting is described that has been proven to be successful, being able to forecast PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations, for the next day, with a good performance. In general, all the models have shown a good agreement between the observed and forecasted concentrations (with R2 from 0.50 to 0.89), and were able to follow the concentration evolution trend. For some cases, there is a slight delay in the prediction trend. Moreover, the results obtained for pollution episodes have proven that statistical forecast can be an effective way of protecting public health.DCEA - Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do AmbienteCENSE - Centro de Investigação em Ambiente e SustentabilidadeRUNMendes, LuísaMonjardino, JoanaFerreira, Francisco2022-09-27T22:34:10Z2022-03-102022-03-10T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article17application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/144314eng2624-909XPURE: 46291686https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2022.826517info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:23:53Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/144314Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:51:29.241552Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods Application to Portugal and Macao |
title |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
spellingShingle |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods Mendes, Luísa air quality classification and regression trees multiple regression nitrogen dioxide ozone particulate matter Artificial Intelligence Computer Science (miscellaneous) Information Systems SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
title_short |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
title_full |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
title_fullStr |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
title_sort |
Air Quality Forecast by Statistical Methods |
author |
Mendes, Luísa |
author_facet |
Mendes, Luísa Monjardino, Joana Ferreira, Francisco |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Monjardino, Joana Ferreira, Francisco |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
DCEA - Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente CENSE - Centro de Investigação em Ambiente e Sustentabilidade RUN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Mendes, Luísa Monjardino, Joana Ferreira, Francisco |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
air quality classification and regression trees multiple regression nitrogen dioxide ozone particulate matter Artificial Intelligence Computer Science (miscellaneous) Information Systems SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
topic |
air quality classification and regression trees multiple regression nitrogen dioxide ozone particulate matter Artificial Intelligence Computer Science (miscellaneous) Information Systems SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
description |
Air pollution is a major concern issue for most countries in the world. In Portugal and Macao, the values of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) are frequently above the concentration thresholds accepted as “good air quality.” Portugal follows the European Union (EU) legislation (Directive 2008/50/EC) on air quality and Macao the air quality guidelines (AQG) from the WHO. Air quality forecasts are very important mitigation tools because of their ability to anticipate pollution events, and issue early warnings, allowing to take preventive measures and reduce impacts, by avoiding exposure. The work presented here refers to the statistical forecast of air pollutants for three regions: Greater Lisbon Area, Madeira Autonomous Region (both located in Portugal), and Macao Special Administrative Region (in Southern China). The presented statistical approach combines Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and multiple regression (MR) analysis to obtain optimized regression models. This consolidated methodology is now in operation for more than a decade in Portugal, and is subject to regular updates that reflect the ongoing research and the changes in the air quality monitoring network. Recently, the same methodology was applied to Macao in collaboration with the Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG). Here, a statistical approach for air quality forecasting is described that has been proven to be successful, being able to forecast PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations, for the next day, with a good performance. In general, all the models have shown a good agreement between the observed and forecasted concentrations (with R2 from 0.50 to 0.89), and were able to follow the concentration evolution trend. For some cases, there is a slight delay in the prediction trend. Moreover, the results obtained for pollution episodes have proven that statistical forecast can be an effective way of protecting public health. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-09-27T22:34:10Z 2022-03-10 2022-03-10T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/144314 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/144314 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2624-909X PURE: 46291686 https://doi.org/10.3389/fdata.2022.826517 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
17 application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799138108605726720 |