External dependency, value-added creation and structural change: the input-output linkage approach revisited

• Autor(a) principal: Lopes, João C.
• Data de Publicação: 2002
• Outros Autores: Amaral, João Ferreira do, Dias, João
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/22905
• topic: Input-Output Analysis; Linkages; Structural Change; Portugal

In this paper we propose an empirical method to evaluate the changes in the external dependency of an economy and its capacity to create value-added, based on a new treatment of interindustry production multipliers. The (gross) growth potential given by the column sums of the Leontief inverse matrix,(backward linkage indicators) results from three terms: interindustry flows, value-added and imported inputs. After a convenient arrangement of these terms, the evolution of backward linkage indicators can be used to detect structural changes, particularly quantifying a (net) growth effect (more value-added creation) and an external dependency effect (more imported inputs), and to classify the productive sectors accordingly. An application to the Portuguese Economy is made, using input-output matrices for the years 1980 and 1995. This method can also be useful as a simple, but suggestive, device to compare the evolution of two or more economies, along their development processes in time.