The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/11144/6813 |
Resumo: | This paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry’s aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact. |
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The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from PortugalCash-flow at riskHotel industryCovid-19Monte Carlo simulationThis paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry’s aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact.2024-03-04T16:12:38Z2023-05-01T00:00:00Z2023-052024-03-04T14:26:09Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11144/6813eng2405-8440cv-prod-337169510.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15850Santos, Mário Coutinho dosMagano, JoséMota, Jorgeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-07T01:46:12Zoai:repositorio.ual.pt:11144/6813Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:13:34.631539Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
title |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
spellingShingle |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Cash-flow at risk Hotel industry Covid-19 Monte Carlo simulation |
title_short |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
title_full |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
title_fullStr |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
title_sort |
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the hotel Industry s economic performance: Evidence from Portugal |
author |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos |
author_facet |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, Mário Coutinho dos Magano, José Mota, Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Cash-flow at risk Hotel industry Covid-19 Monte Carlo simulation |
topic |
Cash-flow at risk Hotel industry Covid-19 Monte Carlo simulation |
description |
This paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and financial performance of the Portuguese mainland hotel industry. For that purpose, we implement a novel empirical approach to gauge the impact of the pandemic during the 2020–2021 period in terms of the industry’s aggregated operating revenues, net total assets, net total debt, generated cash flow, and financial slack. To that end, we derive and estimate a sustainable growth model to project the 2020 and 2021 ‘Covid-free’ aggregated financial statements of a representative Portuguese mainland hotel industry sample. The impact of the Covid pandemic is measured by the difference between the ‘Covid-free’ financial statements and the historical data drawn from the Orbis and Sabi databases. An MC simulation with bootstrapping indicates that the deviations of the deterministic from the stochastic estimates for major indicators vary between 0.5 and 5.5%. The deterministic operating cash flow estimate lies within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean interval of the operating cash flow distribution. Based on this distribution, we estimate the downside risk, measured by cash flow at risk, at 1294 million euros. Overall findings shed some light on the economic and financial repercussions of extreme events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, providing us with a better understanding of how to design public policies and business strategies to recover from such an impact. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-05-01T00:00:00Z 2023-05 2024-03-04T16:12:38Z 2024-03-04T14:26:09Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11144/6813 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11144/6813 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
2405-8440 cv-prod-3371695 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15850 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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