The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25555 |
Resumo: | We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU. |
id |
RCAP_346df57895dba74814dbc65a9451dcf5 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25555 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EUBudget BalanceRatio ForecastsEuropean Comission1998-2011Investment GrowthFiscal RulesWe study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU.Economics BulletinRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioSilva, Jorge2022-09-20T19:54:18Z20152015-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25555engAfonso, António and Jorge Silva.(2015). "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU." Economics Bulletin, Vol . 35, No. 2: pp.1318-1329.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:55:07Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25555Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:09:23.941915Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
title |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
spellingShingle |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU Afonso, António Budget Balance Ratio Forecasts European Comission 1998-2011 Investment Growth Fiscal Rules |
title_short |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
title_full |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
title_fullStr |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
title_full_unstemmed |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
title_sort |
The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Silva, Jorge |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silva, Jorge |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Silva, Jorge |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Budget Balance Ratio Forecasts European Comission 1998-2011 Investment Growth Fiscal Rules |
topic |
Budget Balance Ratio Forecasts European Comission 1998-2011 Investment Growth Fiscal Rules |
description |
We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022-09-20T19:54:18Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25555 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25555 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António and Jorge Silva.(2015). "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU." Economics Bulletin, Vol . 35, No. 2: pp.1318-1329. |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Economics Bulletin |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Economics Bulletin |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799131188495908864 |