IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53417 |
Resumo: | Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique. |
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IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaPedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristanvan Vuuren, DetlefGupta, JoyeetaSantos, FilipeEdmonds, JaeSwart, Rob2022-06-20T18:27:35Z2022-072022-07-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/53417engJiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen, Detlef van Vuuren, Joyeeta Gupta, Filipe Duarte Santos, Jae Edmonds, Rob Swart, IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?, Global Environmental Change, Volume 75, 2022, 102538, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538.10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:59:09Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/53417Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:04:21.054071Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
title |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
spellingShingle |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan |
title_short |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
title_full |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
title_fullStr |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
title_full_unstemmed |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
title_sort |
IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? |
author |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan |
author_facet |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan van Vuuren, Detlef Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe Edmonds, Jae Swart, Rob |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
van Vuuren, Detlef Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe Edmonds, Jae Swart, Rob |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan van Vuuren, Detlef Gupta, Joyeeta Santos, Filipe Edmonds, Jae Swart, Rob |
description |
Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-06-20T18:27:35Z 2022-07 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53417 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/53417 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Jiesper Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen, Detlef van Vuuren, Joyeeta Gupta, Filipe Duarte Santos, Jae Edmonds, Rob Swart, IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?, Global Environmental Change, Volume 75, 2022, 102538, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102538 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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