On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20113 |
Resumo: | This paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts. The first part inspects the causes of official (CBO) fiscal forecasts revisions between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons. Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, we uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable which casts doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (Consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased towards optimism while this is less the case for Consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts, but evidence also seems to indicate that Consensus forecasts dominate CBO’s in terms of information content. |
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On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private informationforecasting performanceencompassing testsCBOConsensusThis paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts. The first part inspects the causes of official (CBO) fiscal forecasts revisions between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons. Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, we uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable which casts doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (Consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased towards optimism while this is less the case for Consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts, but evidence also seems to indicate that Consensus forecasts dominate CBO’s in terms of information content.ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaZidong, AnJalles, João Tovar2020-05-28T14:24:52Z2020-052020-05-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20113engZidong, An e João Tovar Jalles (2020). "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0130 – 20202184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:49:34Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/20113Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:04:55.135960Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
title |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
spellingShingle |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information Zidong, An forecasting performance encompassing tests CBO Consensus |
title_short |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
title_full |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
title_fullStr |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
title_sort |
On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information |
author |
Zidong, An |
author_facet |
Zidong, An Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Zidong, An Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
forecasting performance encompassing tests CBO Consensus |
topic |
forecasting performance encompassing tests CBO Consensus |
description |
This paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts. The first part inspects the causes of official (CBO) fiscal forecasts revisions between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons. Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, we uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable which casts doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (Consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased towards optimism while this is less the case for Consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts, but evidence also seems to indicate that Consensus forecasts dominate CBO’s in terms of information content. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-28T14:24:52Z 2020-05 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20113 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20113 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Zidong, An e João Tovar Jalles (2020). "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts : government vs. private information". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper nº 0130 – 2020 2184-108X |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
ISEG - REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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