Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/157641 |
Resumo: | Bravo, J. M., Ayuso, M., Holzmann, R., & Palmer, E. (2023). Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases: Amending the retirement age. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 113(November), 161-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.007 ---Funding: Jorge M. Bravo was supported by Portuguese National Science Funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, grant UIDB/04152/2020 – Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) and grant UIDB/00315/2020 – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL). Mercedes Ayuso is grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GB-C21. |
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Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increasesAmending the retirement ageRetirement ageActuarial fairnessIntergenerational neutralityPensionsBayesian Model EnsemblePopulation ageingStatistics and ProbabilityEconomics and EconometricsStatistics, Probability and UncertaintySDG 3 - Good Health and Well-beingBravo, J. M., Ayuso, M., Holzmann, R., & Palmer, E. (2023). Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases: Amending the retirement age. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 113(November), 161-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.007 ---Funding: Jorge M. Bravo was supported by Portuguese National Science Funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, grant UIDB/04152/2020 – Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) and grant UIDB/00315/2020 – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL). Mercedes Ayuso is grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GB-C21.Continuous longevity improvements and population ageing have led countries to modify national public pension schemes by increasing standard and early retirement ages in a discretionary, scheduled, or automatic way, and making it harder for people to retire prematurely. To this end, countries have adopted alternative retirement age strategies, but our analyses show that the measures taken are often poorly designed and consequently misaligned with the pension scheme's ultimate goals. This paper discusses how to implement automatic indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy developments while respecting the principles of intergenerational actuarial fairness and neutrality among generations of the respective policy scheme design. With stable demographic conditions, we show in policy designs in which extended working lives translate into additional pension entitlements, the pension age must be automatically updated to keep the period in retirement constant. Alternatively, policy designs that pursue a fixed replacement rate are consistent with retirement age policies targeting a constant balance between active years in the workforce and years in retirement. Under conditions of population ageing, the statutory pension age will have to increase at a faster rate to meet the intergenerational equity criteria. The empirical strategy employed a Bayesian Model Ensemble approach to stochastic mortality modelling to address model risk and generate forecasts of intergenerationally and actuarially fair pension ages for 23 countries from 2000 to 2050. The findings show that the pension age increases needed to accommodate the effect of longevity developments on pay-as-you-go equilibrium and to reinstate equity between generations are sizeable and well beyond those employed and/or legislated in most countries. A new wave of pension reforms may be at the doorsteps.Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management SchoolNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNBravo, Jorge M.Ayuso, MercedesHolzmann, RobertPalmer, Edward2023-09-11T22:14:54Z2023-11-012023-11-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article24application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/157641eng0167-6687PURE: 70649564https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.007info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:39:55Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/157641Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:56:47.998762Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases Amending the retirement age |
title |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
spellingShingle |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases Bravo, Jorge M. Retirement age Actuarial fairness Intergenerational neutrality Pensions Bayesian Model Ensemble Population ageing Statistics and Probability Economics and Econometrics Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
title_short |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
title_full |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
title_fullStr |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
title_sort |
Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases |
author |
Bravo, Jorge M. |
author_facet |
Bravo, Jorge M. Ayuso, Mercedes Holzmann, Robert Palmer, Edward |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Ayuso, Mercedes Holzmann, Robert Palmer, Edward |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Information Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS) RUN |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bravo, Jorge M. Ayuso, Mercedes Holzmann, Robert Palmer, Edward |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Retirement age Actuarial fairness Intergenerational neutrality Pensions Bayesian Model Ensemble Population ageing Statistics and Probability Economics and Econometrics Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
topic |
Retirement age Actuarial fairness Intergenerational neutrality Pensions Bayesian Model Ensemble Population ageing Statistics and Probability Economics and Econometrics Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
description |
Bravo, J. M., Ayuso, M., Holzmann, R., & Palmer, E. (2023). Intergenerational actuarial fairness when longevity increases: Amending the retirement age. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 113(November), 161-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.007 ---Funding: Jorge M. Bravo was supported by Portuguese National Science Funds through Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, grant UIDB/04152/2020 – Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC) and grant UIDB/00315/2020 – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL). Mercedes Ayuso is grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for funding received under grant PID2019-105986GB-C21. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-11T22:14:54Z 2023-11-01 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/157641 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10362/157641 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
0167-6687 PURE: 70649564 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2023.08.007 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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24 application/pdf |
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reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799138151932887040 |