Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/26890 |
Resumo: | Angola and Nigeria are the two largest oil production countries in Africa. Oil related activities represent a large proportion of their economic activity which make them vulnerable to oil price shocks. A large body of research suggests that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity, however, the empirical literature on macroeconomics effects of oil price shocks is biased towards developed oil importing countries and lacks developing countries study cases (Bangara & Dunne, 2018). Following existing literature (Jiménez-Rodríguez & Sánchez, 2004), a quarterly four variables SVAR from 2002Q1 to 2017Q4 is applied to investigate the implications of oil price shocks in the key macroeconomic variables of Angola and Nigeria. The study finds that even though the two countries share similar dependence on oil exports, there is strong evidence that they react differently to crude oil price shocks. While in Angola oil prices granger-cause real GDP, real exchange rate and inflation, in Nigeria it only granger-cause real exchange rate. Furthermore, whereas in Angola, a positive oil price shock, increases real GDP, contributes to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a reduction in inflation. In Nigeria, real GDP doesn’t seem to respond significantly to oil price shocks and at least in the short run neither inflation. These results suggest that Angola is more vulnerable to oil price shocks than Nigeria which maybe explained by the different structure of their domestic economies as well as the differences in the reserve buffers strategies to soften the magnitude of the external shock’s impact. |
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Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and NigeriaOil price shocksGranger-CauseSVARNigeriaChoque petrolíferoCausalidade de grangerAngolaDomínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e GestãoAngola and Nigeria are the two largest oil production countries in Africa. Oil related activities represent a large proportion of their economic activity which make them vulnerable to oil price shocks. A large body of research suggests that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity, however, the empirical literature on macroeconomics effects of oil price shocks is biased towards developed oil importing countries and lacks developing countries study cases (Bangara & Dunne, 2018). Following existing literature (Jiménez-Rodríguez & Sánchez, 2004), a quarterly four variables SVAR from 2002Q1 to 2017Q4 is applied to investigate the implications of oil price shocks in the key macroeconomic variables of Angola and Nigeria. The study finds that even though the two countries share similar dependence on oil exports, there is strong evidence that they react differently to crude oil price shocks. While in Angola oil prices granger-cause real GDP, real exchange rate and inflation, in Nigeria it only granger-cause real exchange rate. Furthermore, whereas in Angola, a positive oil price shock, increases real GDP, contributes to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a reduction in inflation. In Nigeria, real GDP doesn’t seem to respond significantly to oil price shocks and at least in the short run neither inflation. These results suggest that Angola is more vulnerable to oil price shocks than Nigeria which maybe explained by the different structure of their domestic economies as well as the differences in the reserve buffers strategies to soften the magnitude of the external shock’s impact.Angola e Nigéria são os dois maiores produtores de petróleo em África. A maior parte da literatura empírica consultada sugere que flutuações do preço do petróleo têm um impacto considerável na atividade económica dos países. Entretanto, estes estudos analisam maioritariamente países desenvolvidos (importadores de petróleo). Sendo que existe uma carência de estudos de casos de países em desenvolvimento exportadores de petróleo (Bangara & Dunne, 2018). Seguindo a literatura (Jiménez-Rodríguez & Sánchez, 2004), procuramos investigar as implicações dos choques petrolíferos em Angola e na Nigéria através da aplicação de um SVAR de 2002Q1 a 2017Q4. O estudo constata que, embora os dois países sejam similarmente dependentes das exportações de petróleo, há fortes evidências de que eles reagem de maneira diferente aos choques petrolíferos. Em Angola os choques petrolíferos causam (no sentido de Granger) um aumento do PIB real, da taxa de câmbio real e da inflação. Mas, na Nigéria os choques petrolíferos causam apenas a taxa de câmbio real. Além disso, enquanto em Angola, um aumento no preço do petróleo, aumenta o PIB real, contribui para uma apreciação da taxa de câmbio real e uma redução da inflação. Na Nigéria, o PIB real não parece responder de forma significativa aos choques petrolíferos e, pelo menos a curto prazo, nem à inflação. Os resultados sugerem que Angola é mais vulnerável aos choques petrolíferos do que a Nigéria e aponta como possível explicação a diferença na estrutura económica, e na existência de fundos de estabilização macroeconómica.Reis, HugoVeritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica PortuguesaVaz, Carlos Deosvaldo Fragoso2019-02-19T09:16:01Z2019-01-2820192019-01-28T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/26890TID:202171612enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-12T17:32:23Zoai:repositorio.ucp.pt:10400.14/26890Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T18:21:29.631086Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
title |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
spellingShingle |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria Vaz, Carlos Deosvaldo Fragoso Oil price shocks Granger-Cause SVAR Nigeria Choque petrolífero Causalidade de granger Angola Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
title_short |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
title_full |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
title_fullStr |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
title_sort |
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for the Macroeconomy of African Oil exporting countries : evidence from Angola and Nigeria |
author |
Vaz, Carlos Deosvaldo Fragoso |
author_facet |
Vaz, Carlos Deosvaldo Fragoso |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Reis, Hugo Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Vaz, Carlos Deosvaldo Fragoso |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Oil price shocks Granger-Cause SVAR Nigeria Choque petrolífero Causalidade de granger Angola Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
topic |
Oil price shocks Granger-Cause SVAR Nigeria Choque petrolífero Causalidade de granger Angola Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão |
description |
Angola and Nigeria are the two largest oil production countries in Africa. Oil related activities represent a large proportion of their economic activity which make them vulnerable to oil price shocks. A large body of research suggests that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity, however, the empirical literature on macroeconomics effects of oil price shocks is biased towards developed oil importing countries and lacks developing countries study cases (Bangara & Dunne, 2018). Following existing literature (Jiménez-Rodríguez & Sánchez, 2004), a quarterly four variables SVAR from 2002Q1 to 2017Q4 is applied to investigate the implications of oil price shocks in the key macroeconomic variables of Angola and Nigeria. The study finds that even though the two countries share similar dependence on oil exports, there is strong evidence that they react differently to crude oil price shocks. While in Angola oil prices granger-cause real GDP, real exchange rate and inflation, in Nigeria it only granger-cause real exchange rate. Furthermore, whereas in Angola, a positive oil price shock, increases real GDP, contributes to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a reduction in inflation. In Nigeria, real GDP doesn’t seem to respond significantly to oil price shocks and at least in the short run neither inflation. These results suggest that Angola is more vulnerable to oil price shocks than Nigeria which maybe explained by the different structure of their domestic economies as well as the differences in the reserve buffers strategies to soften the magnitude of the external shock’s impact. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-02-19T09:16:01Z 2019-01-28 2019 2019-01-28T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/26890 TID:202171612 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/26890 |
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TID:202171612 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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