Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328 |
Resumo: | The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement. |
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Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Modelsclimate action; climate policy; global climate governance architecture; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; scenario analysisThe Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.Cogitatio2022-09-21info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5328Politics and Governance; Vol 10, No 3 (2022): Exploring Climate Policy Ambition; 171-1852183-2463reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5328https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5328/5328https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/5328/2788Copyright (c) 2022 Thomas Hickmann, Christoph Bertram, Frank Biermann, Elina Brutschin, Elmar Kriegler, Silvia Pianta, Keywan Riahi, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuureninfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessHickmann, ThomasBertram, ChristophBiermann, FrankBrutschin, ElinaKriegler, ElmarLivingston, Jasmine E.Pianta, SilviaRiahi, Keywanvan Ruijven, Basvan Vuuren, Detlef2022-12-22T15:16:10Zoai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5328Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:22:15.933543Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
title |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
spellingShingle |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models Hickmann, Thomas climate action; climate policy; global climate governance architecture; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; scenario analysis |
title_short |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
title_full |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
title_fullStr |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
title_sort |
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models |
author |
Hickmann, Thomas |
author_facet |
Hickmann, Thomas Bertram, Christoph Biermann, Frank Brutschin, Elina Kriegler, Elmar Livingston, Jasmine E. Pianta, Silvia Riahi, Keywan van Ruijven, Bas van Vuuren, Detlef |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Bertram, Christoph Biermann, Frank Brutschin, Elina Kriegler, Elmar Livingston, Jasmine E. Pianta, Silvia Riahi, Keywan van Ruijven, Bas van Vuuren, Detlef |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Hickmann, Thomas Bertram, Christoph Biermann, Frank Brutschin, Elina Kriegler, Elmar Livingston, Jasmine E. Pianta, Silvia Riahi, Keywan van Ruijven, Bas van Vuuren, Detlef |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
climate action; climate policy; global climate governance architecture; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; scenario analysis |
topic |
climate action; climate policy; global climate governance architecture; integrated assessment models; Paris Agreement; scenario analysis |
description |
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-09-21 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328 oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5328 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328 |
identifier_str_mv |
oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/5328 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5328 https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5328/5328 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/5328/2788 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Politics and Governance; Vol 10, No 3 (2022): Exploring Climate Policy Ambition; 171-185 2183-2463 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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