SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Pacheco, Luís Miguel
Data de Publicação: 2015
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080
Resumo: In this paper we analyze a set of financial ratios from hospitality sector SMEs in order to ascertain which factors determine a greater probability of default. We choose the hospitality sector due to its importance in the Portuguese economy and has been particularly affected by the recent economic downturn and austerity measures and because, to the best of our knowledge, this sector has never been the object of such a study. Usually the literature seeks to find a set of variables which are significant in the estimation of default and multiple discriminant analysis and logit methodology are the main avenues of research on this area. Our data was collected from SABI and we followed logit methodology. Our results recommend that in ascertaining the creditworthiness of borrowers only debt and equity variables appear to be relevant to explaining failure, and overreliance on profit as an indication of good financial performance should be limited. The main reason for our rather poor results could be from problems with the data quality, possibly since the accounts published by firms aren’t reliable and tend to present negative results.
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spelling SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sectorSMEDefault modelingFinancial managementHospitality sectorLogit modelsIn this paper we analyze a set of financial ratios from hospitality sector SMEs in order to ascertain which factors determine a greater probability of default. We choose the hospitality sector due to its importance in the Portuguese economy and has been particularly affected by the recent economic downturn and austerity measures and because, to the best of our knowledge, this sector has never been the object of such a study. Usually the literature seeks to find a set of variables which are significant in the estimation of default and multiple discriminant analysis and logit methodology are the main avenues of research on this area. Our data was collected from SABI and we followed logit methodology. Our results recommend that in ascertaining the creditworthiness of borrowers only debt and equity variables appear to be relevant to explaining failure, and overreliance on profit as an indication of good financial performance should be limited. The main reason for our rather poor results could be from problems with the data quality, possibly since the accounts published by firms aren’t reliable and tend to present negative results.Tourism & Management Studies2015-03-22T11:56:38Z2015-03-222015-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfPacheco, L.M. (2015). SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector. Tourism & Management Studies, 11(1), 153-159. Disponível no Repositório UPT, http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080.http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080Pacheco, L.M. (2015). SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector. Tourism & Management Studies, 11(1), 153-159. Disponível no Repositório UPT, http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080.http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080eng2182-8466http://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/770/1300Pacheco, Luís Miguelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-16T02:04:15Zoai:repositorio.upt.pt:11328/1080Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T22:38:59.264323Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
title SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
spellingShingle SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
Pacheco, Luís Miguel
SME
Default modeling
Financial management
Hospitality sector
Logit models
title_short SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
title_full SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
title_fullStr SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
title_full_unstemmed SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
title_sort SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector
author Pacheco, Luís Miguel
author_facet Pacheco, Luís Miguel
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Pacheco, Luís Miguel
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv SME
Default modeling
Financial management
Hospitality sector
Logit models
topic SME
Default modeling
Financial management
Hospitality sector
Logit models
description In this paper we analyze a set of financial ratios from hospitality sector SMEs in order to ascertain which factors determine a greater probability of default. We choose the hospitality sector due to its importance in the Portuguese economy and has been particularly affected by the recent economic downturn and austerity measures and because, to the best of our knowledge, this sector has never been the object of such a study. Usually the literature seeks to find a set of variables which are significant in the estimation of default and multiple discriminant analysis and logit methodology are the main avenues of research on this area. Our data was collected from SABI and we followed logit methodology. Our results recommend that in ascertaining the creditworthiness of borrowers only debt and equity variables appear to be relevant to explaining failure, and overreliance on profit as an indication of good financial performance should be limited. The main reason for our rather poor results could be from problems with the data quality, possibly since the accounts published by firms aren’t reliable and tend to present negative results.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-03-22T11:56:38Z
2015-03-22
2015-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv Pacheco, L.M. (2015). SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector. Tourism & Management Studies, 11(1), 153-159. Disponível no Repositório UPT, http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080.
http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080
Pacheco, L.M. (2015). SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector. Tourism & Management Studies, 11(1), 153-159. Disponível no Repositório UPT, http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080.
http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080
identifier_str_mv Pacheco, L.M. (2015). SMEs probability of default: the case of the hospitality sector. Tourism & Management Studies, 11(1), 153-159. Disponível no Repositório UPT, http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080.
url http://hdl.handle.net/11328/1080
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2182-8466
http://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/770/1300
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Tourism & Management Studies
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Tourism & Management Studies
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collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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