Different measures of volatility: the hypothesis of output composition in Portugal

• Autor(a) principal: Fuinhas, José Alberto
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Outros Autores: Marques, António Cardoso
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/6828
• topic: Macroeconomic volatility; Output composition effect; Correlation effect

1This paper focuses on analyzing the impact of the consequences of monetary union on GDP volatility in Portugal. Using quarterly data from 1978:01 to 2009:04, we test the output composition effect and the correlation effect through three alternative approaches of volatility: year on year, quarter on quarter and the value of output gap. Results support the presence of the composition effect. Overall, the average covariance has played a relevant role in lowering volatility. Evidence also indicates that there is a regime shift near the years 1992-3, while both European Union membership and participation in the euro area contribute towards smoothing the economy. The decreasing path of volatility was slightly reversed after the country became a euro area member.