Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Bispo, Regina
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Vieira, Francisca G., Bachir, Nádia, Espadinha-Cruz, Pedro, Lopes, José Pedro, Penha, Alexandre, Marques, Filipe J., Grilo, António
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154385
Resumo: Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)
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spelling Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in PortugalHotspot analysisSpatial autocorrelationSpatial modellingUrban firesChemistry(all)Materials Science(all)Safety, Risk, Reliability and QualityPhysics and Astronomy(all)Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)Fires in urban areas typically carry severe consequences. High population density together with the complexity of urban network potentially imply significant impacts in property loss, physical damage and life losses. However, despite the impact that fires may have in urban areas, research in urban fire prediction remains limited. In this study, we modelled urban fire occurrences while making a comparative analysis of different strategies to account for spatial autocorrelation. Considering space dependence in addition to a range of social-economic explanatory variables has proven to strengthen the validity of the fitted models. The spatial Durbin error model, including population density, degraded buildings density and buying power, was selected as having the best fit. This model allowed to map the estimated probability of fire occurrence across Portugal, revealing a spatial pattern with clusters centred on the two main Portuguese city districts (Lisboa and Porto). Ultimately, the analysis of the relation between the observed urban fire incidence and the actual number of fire stations in each municipality allowed to underline the need for planning the spatial configuration of fire stations, both in number and location, at a regional scale.DM - Departamento de MatemáticaCMA - Centro de Matemática e AplicaçõesUNIDEMI - Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e IndustrialDEMI - Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e IndustrialRUNBispo, ReginaVieira, Francisca G.Bachir, NádiaEspadinha-Cruz, PedroLopes, José PedroPenha, AlexandreMarques, Filipe J.Grilo, António2023-06-24T22:15:40Z2023-072023-07-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article9application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/154385eng0379-7112PURE: 64500040https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2023.103802info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:36:49Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/154385Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:55:36.049693Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
title Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
spellingShingle Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
Bispo, Regina
Hotspot analysis
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial modelling
Urban fires
Chemistry(all)
Materials Science(all)
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Physics and Astronomy(all)
title_short Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
title_full Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
title_fullStr Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
title_full_unstemmed Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
title_sort Spatial modelling and mapping of urban fire occurrence in Portugal
author Bispo, Regina
author_facet Bispo, Regina
Vieira, Francisca G.
Bachir, Nádia
Espadinha-Cruz, Pedro
Lopes, José Pedro
Penha, Alexandre
Marques, Filipe J.
Grilo, António
author_role author
author2 Vieira, Francisca G.
Bachir, Nádia
Espadinha-Cruz, Pedro
Lopes, José Pedro
Penha, Alexandre
Marques, Filipe J.
Grilo, António
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv DM - Departamento de Matemática
CMA - Centro de Matemática e Aplicações
UNIDEMI - Unidade de Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
DEMI - Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica e Industrial
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bispo, Regina
Vieira, Francisca G.
Bachir, Nádia
Espadinha-Cruz, Pedro
Lopes, José Pedro
Penha, Alexandre
Marques, Filipe J.
Grilo, António
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Hotspot analysis
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial modelling
Urban fires
Chemistry(all)
Materials Science(all)
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Physics and Astronomy(all)
topic Hotspot analysis
Spatial autocorrelation
Spatial modelling
Urban fires
Chemistry(all)
Materials Science(all)
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Physics and Astronomy(all)
description Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-06-24T22:15:40Z
2023-07
2023-07-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154385
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/154385
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 0379-7112
PURE: 64500040
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2023.103802
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 9
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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