The risk of disabling, surgery and reoperation in Crohn's disease - A decision tree-based approach to prognosis

• Autor(a) principal: Dias, C.
• Data de Publicação: 2017
• Outros Autores: Pereira Rodrigues, P., Fernandes, S., Portela, F., Ministro, P., Martins, D., Sousa, P., Lago, P., Rosa, I., Correia, L., Moura Santos, P., Magro, F.
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.16/2167

INTRODUCTION: Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease known to carry a high risk of disabling and many times requiring surgical interventions. This article describes a decision-tree based approach that defines the CD patients' risk or undergoing disabling events, surgical interventions and reoperations, based on clinical and demographic variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This multicentric study involved 1547 CD patients retrospectively enrolled and divided into two cohorts: a derivation one (80%) and a validation one (20%). Decision trees were built upon applying the CHAIRT algorithm for the selection of variables. RESULTS: Three-level decision trees were built for the risk of disabling and reoperation, whereas the risk of surgery was described in a two-level one. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the area under the curves (AUC) Was higher than 70% for all outcomes. The defined risk cut-off values show usefulness for the assessed outcomes: risk levels above 75% for disabling had an odds test positivity of 4.06 [3.50-4.71], whereas risk levels below 34% and 19% excluded surgery and reoperation with an odds test negativity of 0.15 [0.09-0.25] and 0.50 [0.24-1.01], respectively. Overall, patients with B2 or B3 phenotype had a higher proportion of disabling disease and surgery, while patients with later introduction of pharmacological therapeutic (1 months after initial surgery) had a higher proportion of reoperation. CONCLUSIONS: The decision-tree based approach used in this study, with demographic and clinical variables, has shown to be a valid and useful approach to depict such risks of disabling, surgery and reoperation.