Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28149 |
Resumo: | The assessment of coastal land use/cover (LULC) change is one of the most precise techniques for detecting spatio-temporal change in the coastal system. This study, integrated Land Change Modeler, Habitat Quality Model, and Digital Shoreline Analysis System, to quantify spacio-temporal coastal LULC change and driving forces between 2000 and 2020. Combined the CA-Markov Model with Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), merged local SLR data with future representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) scenarios, and predicted future coastal LULC change and associated sea-level rise (SLR) impact on the coastal land use and habitat quality in short-, medium- and long-term. The study area had significant coastal LULC change between 2000 and 2020. The tidal flats, whose change was driven mainly by sea level, registered a total net gain of 57.93 km2 . We also observed the significant loss of developed land whose change was influenced by tidal flat with a total loss of − 75.58 km2. The tidal flat will experience a stunning net gain of 80.55 km2 between 2020 and 2060, making developed land the most negatively impacted land in the study area. The study led to the conclusion that the uncontrolled conversion of saltmarshes, mixed-forest, and mangroves into agriculture and infrastructures were the main factors affecting the coastal systems, including the faster coastal erosion and accretion observed during a 20-year period. The study also concluded that a low coastal elevation of − 1 m and a slope of less than 2◦have contributed to coastal change. Unprecedented changes will unavoidably pose a danger to coastal ecological services, socioeconomic growth, and food security. Timely efforts should be made by establishing sustainable mitigation methods to avoid the future impact. |
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Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-BissauRemote sensing Change analysis Driving forces Future prediction Coastal protectionThe assessment of coastal land use/cover (LULC) change is one of the most precise techniques for detecting spatio-temporal change in the coastal system. This study, integrated Land Change Modeler, Habitat Quality Model, and Digital Shoreline Analysis System, to quantify spacio-temporal coastal LULC change and driving forces between 2000 and 2020. Combined the CA-Markov Model with Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), merged local SLR data with future representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) scenarios, and predicted future coastal LULC change and associated sea-level rise (SLR) impact on the coastal land use and habitat quality in short-, medium- and long-term. The study area had significant coastal LULC change between 2000 and 2020. The tidal flats, whose change was driven mainly by sea level, registered a total net gain of 57.93 km2 . We also observed the significant loss of developed land whose change was influenced by tidal flat with a total loss of − 75.58 km2. The tidal flat will experience a stunning net gain of 80.55 km2 between 2020 and 2060, making developed land the most negatively impacted land in the study area. The study led to the conclusion that the uncontrolled conversion of saltmarshes, mixed-forest, and mangroves into agriculture and infrastructures were the main factors affecting the coastal systems, including the faster coastal erosion and accretion observed during a 20-year period. The study also concluded that a low coastal elevation of − 1 m and a slope of less than 2◦have contributed to coastal change. Unprecedented changes will unavoidably pose a danger to coastal ecological services, socioeconomic growth, and food security. Timely efforts should be made by establishing sustainable mitigation methods to avoid the future impact.Repositório da Universidade de LisboaLopes, Namir Domingos RaimundoLi, TianxinZhang, PengMatomela, NametsoIkhumhen, Harrison OdionSá, Rui M.2023-08-22T11:22:53Z2022-12-012022-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28149engNamir Domingos Raimundo Lopes, Tianxin Li, Peng Zhang, Nametso Matomela, Harrison Odion Ikhumhen, Rui M. Sá, Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau, Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 327, 2023, 116804, ISSN 0301-4797, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116804. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479722023775)10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116804info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-27T01:31:58Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/28149Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:27:34.658094Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
title |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
spellingShingle |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau Lopes, Namir Domingos Raimundo Remote sensing Change analysis Driving forces Future prediction Coastal protection |
title_short |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
title_full |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
title_fullStr |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
title_sort |
Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau |
author |
Lopes, Namir Domingos Raimundo |
author_facet |
Lopes, Namir Domingos Raimundo Li, Tianxin Zhang, Peng Matomela, Nametso Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion Sá, Rui M. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Li, Tianxin Zhang, Peng Matomela, Nametso Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion Sá, Rui M. |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Lopes, Namir Domingos Raimundo Li, Tianxin Zhang, Peng Matomela, Nametso Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion Sá, Rui M. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Remote sensing Change analysis Driving forces Future prediction Coastal protection |
topic |
Remote sensing Change analysis Driving forces Future prediction Coastal protection |
description |
The assessment of coastal land use/cover (LULC) change is one of the most precise techniques for detecting spatio-temporal change in the coastal system. This study, integrated Land Change Modeler, Habitat Quality Model, and Digital Shoreline Analysis System, to quantify spacio-temporal coastal LULC change and driving forces between 2000 and 2020. Combined the CA-Markov Model with Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), merged local SLR data with future representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) scenarios, and predicted future coastal LULC change and associated sea-level rise (SLR) impact on the coastal land use and habitat quality in short-, medium- and long-term. The study area had significant coastal LULC change between 2000 and 2020. The tidal flats, whose change was driven mainly by sea level, registered a total net gain of 57.93 km2 . We also observed the significant loss of developed land whose change was influenced by tidal flat with a total loss of − 75.58 km2. The tidal flat will experience a stunning net gain of 80.55 km2 between 2020 and 2060, making developed land the most negatively impacted land in the study area. The study led to the conclusion that the uncontrolled conversion of saltmarshes, mixed-forest, and mangroves into agriculture and infrastructures were the main factors affecting the coastal systems, including the faster coastal erosion and accretion observed during a 20-year period. The study also concluded that a low coastal elevation of − 1 m and a slope of less than 2◦have contributed to coastal change. Unprecedented changes will unavoidably pose a danger to coastal ecological services, socioeconomic growth, and food security. Timely efforts should be made by establishing sustainable mitigation methods to avoid the future impact. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-01 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z 2023-08-22T11:22:53Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28149 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/28149 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Namir Domingos Raimundo Lopes, Tianxin Li, Peng Zhang, Nametso Matomela, Harrison Odion Ikhumhen, Rui M. Sá, Predicting future coastal land use/cover change and associated sea-level impact on habitat quality in the Northwestern Coastline of Guinea-Bissau, Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 327, 2023, 116804, ISSN 0301-4797, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116804. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479722023775) 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116804 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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