Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15777 |
Resumo: | Over the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sud- den stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productiv- ity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery remains fragile. We review the history and the main mechanisms at work. We then review a number of policy options, from fiscal consolidation to fiscal expansion, cleaning up of non-performing loans, labor market reforms, product market reforms, and euro exit. We argue that at this point, the main focus of macroeconomic policy should be twofold. The first is the treatment of non-performing loans, the second is product market reforms and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit. |
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Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the EuroMacroeconomic imbalancesProductivity growthNon-performing loansFiscal policyPortugalMicro-flexilityOver the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sud- den stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productiv- ity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery remains fragile. We review the history and the main mechanisms at work. We then review a number of policy options, from fiscal consolidation to fiscal expansion, cleaning up of non-performing loans, labor market reforms, product market reforms, and euro exit. We argue that at this point, the main focus of macroeconomic policy should be twofold. The first is the treatment of non-performing loans, the second is product market reforms and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit.Springer VerlagRepositório da Universidade de LisboaBlanchard, OlivierPortugal, Pedro2018-07-03T09:14:35Z2017-122017-12-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15777engBlanchard, Olivier e Pedro Portugal (2017). "Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro". Portuguese Economic Journal, 16(3):149-1681617-982X (print)10.1007/s10258-017-0139-8metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-05-28T01:31:02Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/15777Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:01:21.510989Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
title |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
spellingShingle |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro Blanchard, Olivier Macroeconomic imbalances Productivity growth Non-performing loans Fiscal policy Portugal Micro-flexility |
title_short |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
title_full |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
title_fullStr |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
title_full_unstemmed |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
title_sort |
Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro |
author |
Blanchard, Olivier |
author_facet |
Blanchard, Olivier Portugal, Pedro |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Portugal, Pedro |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Blanchard, Olivier Portugal, Pedro |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomic imbalances Productivity growth Non-performing loans Fiscal policy Portugal Micro-flexility |
topic |
Macroeconomic imbalances Productivity growth Non-performing loans Fiscal policy Portugal Micro-flexility |
description |
Over the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sud- den stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productiv- ity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery remains fragile. We review the history and the main mechanisms at work. We then review a number of policy options, from fiscal consolidation to fiscal expansion, cleaning up of non-performing loans, labor market reforms, product market reforms, and euro exit. We argue that at this point, the main focus of macroeconomic policy should be twofold. The first is the treatment of non-performing loans, the second is product market reforms and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-12 2017-12-01T00:00:00Z 2018-07-03T09:14:35Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15777 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15777 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Blanchard, Olivier e Pedro Portugal (2017). "Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro". Portuguese Economic Journal, 16(3):149-168 1617-982X (print) 10.1007/s10258-017-0139-8 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer Verlag |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer Verlag |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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