The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision

• Autor(a) principal: Finucane, Anne M
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Outros Autores: Bone, Anna E, Evans, Catherine J, Gomes, Bárbara, Meade, Richard, Higginson, Irene J, Murray, Scott A
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/106835; https://doi.org/10.1186/s12904-019-0490-x
• topic: Forecasts; Projections; Frailty; Palliative care; Place of death; Care homes; Nursing homes; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Male; Scotland; Terminal Care; Aging; Death

Background: Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation. Aims: To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends. Methods: Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004–2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017–2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections. Results: Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8– 23.4% and 14.5–18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0–50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding. Conclusion: To sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase.