Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Merabti, Abdelaaziz
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Darouich, Hanaa, Paredes, Paula, Meddi, Mohamed, Pereira, Luis Santos
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/29665
Resumo: Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters worldwide, but with a particular emphasis in sub-humid and semi-arid climates. Several indices have been created to appropriately identify drought’s characteristics and variability. The main objectives of this study consisted of analyzing the behavior of different indices applied in northeast Algeria and comparing them across a long-term data set (1961–2014). The SPI and RDI at 9-month time scales were compared to the PDSI and MedPDSI based on 123 rainfall stations and gridded PET data interpolated to all the locations. A principal component analysis (PCA) in S-mode with varimax rotation (RPC) was applied to the monthly values of all indices to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts. Two principal components were retained, which identified two sub-regions with coherent differences related to their distance from the Mediterranean Sea and the UNEP aridity index. Trends in the RPC scores were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, which showed a fundamental difference between the two sub-regions. The RPC of all drought indices showed trends of decreases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the northern sub-region, and trends of increases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the southern region, where the climate is mostly semi-arid and arid. Only a few cases were statistically significant, mostly when using the PDSI and MedPDSI for the southern sub-region. The spatial patterns of moderate, severe, and extreme drought occurrences were similar for the SPI and RDI pair of indices based on the probability of rainfall anomalies, and for the Sc-PDSI and MedPDSI pair based on water balance anomalies. The interpretation of the spatial variability of droughts, mainly of the extreme ones, was supported by an analysis of semi-variograms. The novel index MedPDSI compared well with the other indices and showed advantages of performing the soil water balance following the FAO56 dual Kc method with the actual olive evapotranspiration instead of PET, and of better explaining the spatial variability of extreme droughts; in addition, the trends detected were significant for both the northern and southern sub-regions.
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spelling Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration methoddrought patternstrendsPDSIMedPDSISPIRDIAlgeriaDrought is one of the most severe natural disasters worldwide, but with a particular emphasis in sub-humid and semi-arid climates. Several indices have been created to appropriately identify drought’s characteristics and variability. The main objectives of this study consisted of analyzing the behavior of different indices applied in northeast Algeria and comparing them across a long-term data set (1961–2014). The SPI and RDI at 9-month time scales were compared to the PDSI and MedPDSI based on 123 rainfall stations and gridded PET data interpolated to all the locations. A principal component analysis (PCA) in S-mode with varimax rotation (RPC) was applied to the monthly values of all indices to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts. Two principal components were retained, which identified two sub-regions with coherent differences related to their distance from the Mediterranean Sea and the UNEP aridity index. Trends in the RPC scores were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, which showed a fundamental difference between the two sub-regions. The RPC of all drought indices showed trends of decreases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the northern sub-region, and trends of increases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the southern region, where the climate is mostly semi-arid and arid. Only a few cases were statistically significant, mostly when using the PDSI and MedPDSI for the southern sub-region. The spatial patterns of moderate, severe, and extreme drought occurrences were similar for the SPI and RDI pair of indices based on the probability of rainfall anomalies, and for the Sc-PDSI and MedPDSI pair based on water balance anomalies. The interpretation of the spatial variability of droughts, mainly of the extreme ones, was supported by an analysis of semi-variograms. The novel index MedPDSI compared well with the other indices and showed advantages of performing the soil water balance following the FAO56 dual Kc method with the actual olive evapotranspiration instead of PET, and of better explaining the spatial variability of extreme droughts; in addition, the trends detected were significant for both the northern and southern sub-regions.MDPIRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMerabti, AbdelaazizDarouich, HanaaParedes, PaulaMeddi, MohamedPereira, Luis Santos2023-12-22T11:01:52Z2023-022023-02-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/29665engMerabti, A.; Darouich, H.; Paredes, P.; Meddi, M.; Pereira, L.S. Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method. Water 2023, 15, 626doi.org/10.3390/w15040626info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-12-24T01:33:15Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/29665Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:55:52.402110Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
title Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
spellingShingle Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
Merabti, Abdelaaziz
drought patterns
trends
PDSI
MedPDSI
SPI
RDI
Algeria
title_short Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
title_full Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
title_fullStr Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
title_full_unstemmed Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
title_sort Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method
author Merabti, Abdelaaziz
author_facet Merabti, Abdelaaziz
Darouich, Hanaa
Paredes, Paula
Meddi, Mohamed
Pereira, Luis Santos
author_role author
author2 Darouich, Hanaa
Paredes, Paula
Meddi, Mohamed
Pereira, Luis Santos
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Merabti, Abdelaaziz
Darouich, Hanaa
Paredes, Paula
Meddi, Mohamed
Pereira, Luis Santos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv drought patterns
trends
PDSI
MedPDSI
SPI
RDI
Algeria
topic drought patterns
trends
PDSI
MedPDSI
SPI
RDI
Algeria
description Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters worldwide, but with a particular emphasis in sub-humid and semi-arid climates. Several indices have been created to appropriately identify drought’s characteristics and variability. The main objectives of this study consisted of analyzing the behavior of different indices applied in northeast Algeria and comparing them across a long-term data set (1961–2014). The SPI and RDI at 9-month time scales were compared to the PDSI and MedPDSI based on 123 rainfall stations and gridded PET data interpolated to all the locations. A principal component analysis (PCA) in S-mode with varimax rotation (RPC) was applied to the monthly values of all indices to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts. Two principal components were retained, which identified two sub-regions with coherent differences related to their distance from the Mediterranean Sea and the UNEP aridity index. Trends in the RPC scores were assessed using the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope estimator, which showed a fundamental difference between the two sub-regions. The RPC of all drought indices showed trends of decreases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the northern sub-region, and trends of increases in the frequency and severity of droughts in the southern region, where the climate is mostly semi-arid and arid. Only a few cases were statistically significant, mostly when using the PDSI and MedPDSI for the southern sub-region. The spatial patterns of moderate, severe, and extreme drought occurrences were similar for the SPI and RDI pair of indices based on the probability of rainfall anomalies, and for the Sc-PDSI and MedPDSI pair based on water balance anomalies. The interpretation of the spatial variability of droughts, mainly of the extreme ones, was supported by an analysis of semi-variograms. The novel index MedPDSI compared well with the other indices and showed advantages of performing the soil water balance following the FAO56 dual Kc method with the actual olive evapotranspiration instead of PET, and of better explaining the spatial variability of extreme droughts; in addition, the trends detected were significant for both the northern and southern sub-regions.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-12-22T11:01:52Z
2023-02
2023-02-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/29665
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/29665
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Merabti, A.; Darouich, H.; Paredes, P.; Meddi, M.; Pereira, L.S. Assessing spatial variability and trends of droughts in Eastern Algeria using SPI, RDI, PDSI, and MedPDSI—A novel drought index using the FAO56 evapotranspiration method. Water 2023, 15, 626
doi.org/10.3390/w15040626
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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