The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail?
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635 |
Resumo: | Is the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change destined to succeed or doomed to fail? If all the pledges embedded in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are implemented fully, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are predicted to rise by 3–4 °C, far above the agreement’s goal of limiting increases to 1.5 °C. This means that the fate of the agreement will be determined by the success of efforts to strengthen or ratchet up the commitments contained in the national pledges over time. The first substantive section of this essay provides a general account of mechanisms for ratcheting up commitments and conditions determining the use of these mechanisms in international environmental agreements. The second section applies this analysis to the specific case of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion is mixed. There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether the Paris Agreement will succeed in moving from strength to strength in a fashion resembling experience with the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances. Nevertheless, there is more room for hope in this regard than those who see the climate problem as unusually malign, wicked, or even diabolical are willing to acknowledge. |
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The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail?commitments; INDCs; Montreal Protocol; national pledges; Paris Agreement; ratcheting upIs the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change destined to succeed or doomed to fail? If all the pledges embedded in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are implemented fully, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are predicted to rise by 3–4 °C, far above the agreement’s goal of limiting increases to 1.5 °C. This means that the fate of the agreement will be determined by the success of efforts to strengthen or ratchet up the commitments contained in the national pledges over time. The first substantive section of this essay provides a general account of mechanisms for ratcheting up commitments and conditions determining the use of these mechanisms in international environmental agreements. The second section applies this analysis to the specific case of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion is mixed. There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether the Paris Agreement will succeed in moving from strength to strength in a fashion resembling experience with the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances. Nevertheless, there is more room for hope in this regard than those who see the climate problem as unusually malign, wicked, or even diabolical are willing to acknowledge.Cogitatio2016-09-08info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/635Politics and Governance; Vol 4, No 3 (2016): Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement; 124-1322183-2463reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/635https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/635/635Copyright (c) 2016 Oran R. Younghttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessYoung, Oran R.2022-12-22T15:16:26Zoai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/635Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:22:22.766768Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
title |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
spellingShingle |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? Young, Oran R. commitments; INDCs; Montreal Protocol; national pledges; Paris Agreement; ratcheting up |
title_short |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
title_full |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
title_fullStr |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
title_sort |
The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail? |
author |
Young, Oran R. |
author_facet |
Young, Oran R. |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Young, Oran R. |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
commitments; INDCs; Montreal Protocol; national pledges; Paris Agreement; ratcheting up |
topic |
commitments; INDCs; Montreal Protocol; national pledges; Paris Agreement; ratcheting up |
description |
Is the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change destined to succeed or doomed to fail? If all the pledges embedded in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are implemented fully, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are predicted to rise by 3–4 °C, far above the agreement’s goal of limiting increases to 1.5 °C. This means that the fate of the agreement will be determined by the success of efforts to strengthen or ratchet up the commitments contained in the national pledges over time. The first substantive section of this essay provides a general account of mechanisms for ratcheting up commitments and conditions determining the use of these mechanisms in international environmental agreements. The second section applies this analysis to the specific case of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion is mixed. There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether the Paris Agreement will succeed in moving from strength to strength in a fashion resembling experience with the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances. Nevertheless, there is more room for hope in this regard than those who see the climate problem as unusually malign, wicked, or even diabolical are willing to acknowledge. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-09-08 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635 oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/635 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635 |
identifier_str_mv |
oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/635 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/635 https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.635 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/635/635 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 Oran R. Young http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 Oran R. Young http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Politics and Governance; Vol 4, No 3 (2016): Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement; 124-132 2183-2463 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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