Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/6485 |
Resumo: | Unprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025–2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies. |
id |
RCAP_5a8c26ec58549fa0e54a94389d2d6024 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.uac.pt:10400.3/6485 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sectorIntegrated AssessmentShared Socio-economic PathwaysClimate ChangeWhale WatchingCetaceansUnprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025–2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies.AS was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology1 (FCT) through the PhD grant PD/BD/135352/2017. AS, REC, HC and TCL acknowledge the support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the programmatic funding granted to cE3c Research Centre (UIDP/00329/2020). CFS acknowledges funding from FCT under the strategic project granted to MARE (UID/MAR/04292/2019) and FCT research contract 2020.03704.CEECIND. This research was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776661, project “SOCLIMPACT—DownScaling CLImate imPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond”.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade dos AçoresSousa, Andreia G.Coelho, R. EncarnaçãoCosta, HugoLourenço, T. CapelaAzevedo, José M. N.Santos, C. Frazão2022-12-08T20:50:26Z2023-012023-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/6485engSousa, A., Coelho, R.E., Costa, H., Lourenço, T.C., Azevedo, J.M.N. & Santos, C.F. (2022). Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector. "Science of the Total Environment", 857(3), 159589. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.1595890048-969710.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.1595891879-102636270379metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-12-20T14:35:02Zoai:repositorio.uac.pt:10400.3/6485Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:28:36.718685Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
title |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
spellingShingle |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector Sousa, Andreia G. Integrated Assessment Shared Socio-economic Pathways Climate Change Whale Watching Cetaceans |
title_short |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
title_full |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
title_fullStr |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
title_full_unstemmed |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
title_sort |
Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector |
author |
Sousa, Andreia G. |
author_facet |
Sousa, Andreia G. Coelho, R. Encarnação Costa, Hugo Lourenço, T. Capela Azevedo, José M. N. Santos, C. Frazão |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Coelho, R. Encarnação Costa, Hugo Lourenço, T. Capela Azevedo, José M. N. Santos, C. Frazão |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade dos Açores |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Sousa, Andreia G. Coelho, R. Encarnação Costa, Hugo Lourenço, T. Capela Azevedo, José M. N. Santos, C. Frazão |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Integrated Assessment Shared Socio-economic Pathways Climate Change Whale Watching Cetaceans |
topic |
Integrated Assessment Shared Socio-economic Pathways Climate Change Whale Watching Cetaceans |
description |
Unprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025–2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-12-08T20:50:26Z 2023-01 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/6485 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/6485 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Sousa, A., Coelho, R.E., Costa, H., Lourenço, T.C., Azevedo, J.M.N. & Santos, C.F. (2022). Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector. "Science of the Total Environment", 857(3), 159589. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159589 0048-9697 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159589 1879-1026 36270379 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799130744088428544 |