Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Taheri, S.
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: García-Callejas, D., Bastos Araújo, Miguel
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15483
Resumo: Species are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major cause of distributional changes, but it cannot be discarded that distributional dynamics might be at times caused by other mechanisms (e.g. dispersal, ecological drift). Using observed changes in the distribution of 82 breeding birds in Great Britain between three time periods 1968–72 (t1), 1988–91 (t2) and 2007–2011 (t3), we examine whether observed bird range shifts between t1-t2 and t1-t3 are best explained by climate change or land-cover change, or whether they are not distinguishable from what would be expected by chance. We found that range shifts across the rear edge of northerly distributed species in Great Britain are best explained by climate change, while shifts across the leading edge of southerly distributed species are best explained by changes in land-cover. In contrast, at the northern and southern edges of Great Britain, range dynamics could not be distinguished from that expected by chance. The latter observation could be a consequence of boundary effects limiting the direction and magnitude of range changes, stochastic demographic mechanisms neither associated with climate nor land-cover change or with complex interactions among factors. Our results reinforce the view that comprehensive assessments of climate change effects on species range shifts need to examine alternative drivers of change on equal footing and that null models can help assess whether observed patterns could have arisen by chance alone.
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spelling Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamicsSpecies are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major cause of distributional changes, but it cannot be discarded that distributional dynamics might be at times caused by other mechanisms (e.g. dispersal, ecological drift). Using observed changes in the distribution of 82 breeding birds in Great Britain between three time periods 1968–72 (t1), 1988–91 (t2) and 2007–2011 (t3), we examine whether observed bird range shifts between t1-t2 and t1-t3 are best explained by climate change or land-cover change, or whether they are not distinguishable from what would be expected by chance. We found that range shifts across the rear edge of northerly distributed species in Great Britain are best explained by climate change, while shifts across the leading edge of southerly distributed species are best explained by changes in land-cover. In contrast, at the northern and southern edges of Great Britain, range dynamics could not be distinguished from that expected by chance. The latter observation could be a consequence of boundary effects limiting the direction and magnitude of range changes, stochastic demographic mechanisms neither associated with climate nor land-cover change or with complex interactions among factors. Our results reinforce the view that comprehensive assessments of climate change effects on species range shifts need to examine alternative drivers of change on equal footing and that null models can help assess whether observed patterns could have arisen by chance alone.Wiley2023-04-21T13:16:49Z2023-04-212021-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15483engTaheri, S., García-Callejas, D., Araújo, M.B. 2021. Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics. Global Change Biology. 27(6): 1309-1317.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15483ndndmba@uevora.pt221Taheri, S.García-Callejas, D.Bastos Araújo, Miguelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:38:07Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/34914Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:23:29.510183Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
title Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
spellingShingle Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
Taheri, S.
title_short Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
title_full Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
title_fullStr Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
title_sort Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics
author Taheri, S.
author_facet Taheri, S.
García-Callejas, D.
Bastos Araújo, Miguel
author_role author
author2 García-Callejas, D.
Bastos Araújo, Miguel
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Taheri, S.
García-Callejas, D.
Bastos Araújo, Miguel
description Species are reportedly shifting their distributions poleward and upward in several parts of the world in response to climate change. The extent to which other factors might play a role driving these changes is still unclear. Land-cover change is a major cause of distributional changes, but it cannot be discarded that distributional dynamics might be at times caused by other mechanisms (e.g. dispersal, ecological drift). Using observed changes in the distribution of 82 breeding birds in Great Britain between three time periods 1968–72 (t1), 1988–91 (t2) and 2007–2011 (t3), we examine whether observed bird range shifts between t1-t2 and t1-t3 are best explained by climate change or land-cover change, or whether they are not distinguishable from what would be expected by chance. We found that range shifts across the rear edge of northerly distributed species in Great Britain are best explained by climate change, while shifts across the leading edge of southerly distributed species are best explained by changes in land-cover. In contrast, at the northern and southern edges of Great Britain, range dynamics could not be distinguished from that expected by chance. The latter observation could be a consequence of boundary effects limiting the direction and magnitude of range changes, stochastic demographic mechanisms neither associated with climate nor land-cover change or with complex interactions among factors. Our results reinforce the view that comprehensive assessments of climate change effects on species range shifts need to examine alternative drivers of change on equal footing and that null models can help assess whether observed patterns could have arisen by chance alone.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z
2023-04-21T13:16:49Z
2023-04-21
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15483
url http://hdl.handle.net/10174/34914
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15483
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Taheri, S., García-Callejas, D., Araújo, M.B. 2021. Discriminating climate, land-cover and random effects on species range dynamics. Global Change Biology. 27(6): 1309-1317.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15483
nd
nd
mba@uevora.pt
221
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