The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060078 |
Resumo: | Climate changes are a phenomenon that can a ect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are a ecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen. |
id |
RCAP_5cb556432893a9c4f3b5adc3a11662be |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/28491 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Developmentclimate changesPortuguese forestRural firesClimate changes are a phenomenon that can a ect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are a ecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen.MDPI2020-12-03T15:34:30Z2020-12-032019-06-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060078porNunes, L.J.R.; Meireles, C.I.R.; Pinto Gomes, C.J.& Almeida Ribeiro, N.M.C. (2019).The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development. Climate, 7, 78.Climate7ndndndnd242Nunes, LeonelMeireles, CatarinaPinto-Gomes, CarlosAlmeida Ribeiro, Nunoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:24:33Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/28491Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:18:13.700387Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
title |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
spellingShingle |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development Nunes, Leonel climate changes Portuguese forest Rural fires |
title_short |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
title_full |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
title_fullStr |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
title_sort |
The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development |
author |
Nunes, Leonel |
author_facet |
Nunes, Leonel Meireles, Catarina Pinto-Gomes, Carlos Almeida Ribeiro, Nuno |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Meireles, Catarina Pinto-Gomes, Carlos Almeida Ribeiro, Nuno |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Nunes, Leonel Meireles, Catarina Pinto-Gomes, Carlos Almeida Ribeiro, Nuno |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
climate changes Portuguese forest Rural fires |
topic |
climate changes Portuguese forest Rural fires |
description |
Climate changes are a phenomenon that can a ect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are a ecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 2020-12-03T15:34:30Z 2020-12-03 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491 http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060078 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28491 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060078 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Nunes, L.J.R.; Meireles, C.I.R.; Pinto Gomes, C.J.& Almeida Ribeiro, N.M.C. (2019).The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development. Climate, 7, 78. Climate 7 nd nd nd nd 242 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
MDPI |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799136664252055552 |