Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Turolla,Frederico Araújo
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Margarido,Mário Antônio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006
Resumo: In this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Brazil have a Moving Average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. We have modeled the FDI series in US dollars using a univariate model, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a Moving Average pattern in FDI inflows into Brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. The patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. We present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the Theil Coefficient.
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spelling Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMAInternalization TheoryForeign Direct InvestmentARIMA ModelIntervention AnalysisIn this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Brazil have a Moving Average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. We have modeled the FDI series in US dollars using a univariate model, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a Moving Average pattern in FDI inflows into Brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. The patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. We present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the Theil Coefficient.ISCTE-IUL Business School2011-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articletext/htmlhttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006Economia Global e Gestão v.16 n.2 2011reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttp://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006Turolla,Frederico AraújoMargarido,Mário Antônioinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2024-02-06T17:12:09Zoai:scielo:S0873-74442011000200006Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T02:23:00.190628Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
title Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
spellingShingle Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
Turolla,Frederico Araújo
Internalization Theory
Foreign Direct Investment
ARIMA Model
Intervention Analysis
title_short Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
title_full Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
title_fullStr Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
title_full_unstemmed Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
title_sort Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA
author Turolla,Frederico Araújo
author_facet Turolla,Frederico Araújo
Margarido,Mário Antônio
author_role author
author2 Margarido,Mário Antônio
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Turolla,Frederico Araújo
Margarido,Mário Antônio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Internalization Theory
Foreign Direct Investment
ARIMA Model
Intervention Analysis
topic Internalization Theory
Foreign Direct Investment
ARIMA Model
Intervention Analysis
description In this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Brazil have a Moving Average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. We have modeled the FDI series in US dollars using a univariate model, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a Moving Average pattern in FDI inflows into Brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. The patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. We present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the Theil Coefficient.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-09-01
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006
url http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0873-74442011000200006
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv text/html
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISCTE-IUL Business School
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISCTE-IUL Business School
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Economia Global e Gestão v.16 n.2 2011
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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