Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Baptista, Rafael Coelho
Data de Publicação: 2018
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18338
Resumo: Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia / UL
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spelling Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire dataprobabilistic simulationsactive fire dataMaxEntMestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia / ULThis work is of an exploratory nature and describes and evaluates a method to simulate fire spread which, in an operational context, has the potential to be used as a decision-support tool for fire management and suppression. The use of fire spread models has, for the most part, followed a deterministic approach, which does not account for predictions uncertainty. However, fire spread models are subject to assumptions and limitations that inherently produce errors during simulations and so should be integrated in the simulations themselves. For that matter uncertainty was propagated through Farsite fire behavior model by randomly defining 100 different independent combinations of some of the most important input variables. The simulations were run with three different fuel maps, one standardized and two customized. For the evaluation of the fire spread predictions a qualitative and a quantitative analysis were made. Both analyses used MaxEnt derived reference perimeters, and active fire data was used on the qualitative analyses to add temporal depth to the evaluation. Results showed that uncertainties in wind speed and direction, location of ignitions (spatial and temporal), fuel model assignment and typology may have major impact on prediction accuracy. Overall, fuel models presented better results when compared with the standard model and generally showed higher Kappa and burned class agreement values and lower omission errors. This thesis suggests that this method has major potential to optimize fuel management practices, especially if simulations are run with fuel maps derived Portuguese landcover mapsISA/ULSá, Ana Cristina Lopes dePereira, José Miguel CardosoRepositório da Universidade de LisboaBaptista, Rafael Coelho2019-09-18T10:43:46Z20182018-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18338TID:203092384engBaptista, R.C. - Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data. Lisboa: ISA, 2018, 65 p.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:47:56Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/18338Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:03:24.406061Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
title Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
spellingShingle Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
Baptista, Rafael Coelho
probabilistic simulations
active fire data
MaxEnt
title_short Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
title_full Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
title_fullStr Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
title_full_unstemmed Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
title_sort Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data
author Baptista, Rafael Coelho
author_facet Baptista, Rafael Coelho
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Sá, Ana Cristina Lopes de
Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Baptista, Rafael Coelho
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv probabilistic simulations
active fire data
MaxEnt
topic probabilistic simulations
active fire data
MaxEnt
description Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia / UL
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2018-01-01T00:00:00Z
2019-09-18T10:43:46Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
format masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18338
TID:203092384
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18338
identifier_str_mv TID:203092384
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Baptista, R.C. - Can fire spread simulations contribute to support decisions in a fire suppression context ? An evaluation using MaxEnt, FARSITE and satellite active fire data. Lisboa: ISA, 2018, 65 p.
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISA/UL
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISA/UL
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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