Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Coelho, José Carlos
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23873
Resumo: We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to- GDP ratio; and public debt-to-GDP ratio and one-period lagged primary government balance. The estimated fiscal reaction functions suggest the existence of a Ricardian fiscal regime. Finally, modelling via time-varying coefficients, we find that fiscal sustainability increases with growth, fiscal balances and fiscal rules indices, and decreases with trade openness, current account balances, government effectiveness index, after 2010, and with sovereign ratings assigned by the main rating agencies.
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spelling Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinantsfiscal sustainabilitybudget balancepublic debtpanel datatime-varying coefficientsEurozonesovereign ratingsWe examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to- GDP ratio; and public debt-to-GDP ratio and one-period lagged primary government balance. The estimated fiscal reaction functions suggest the existence of a Ricardian fiscal regime. Finally, modelling via time-varying coefficients, we find that fiscal sustainability increases with growth, fiscal balances and fiscal rules indices, and decreases with trade openness, current account balances, government effectiveness index, after 2010, and with sovereign ratings assigned by the main rating agencies.ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and MathematicsRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioCoelho, José Carlos2022-03-21T18:33:09Z2022-032022-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23873engAfonso, António e José Carlos Coelho (2022). "Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0219 – 20222184-108Xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:53:30Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/23873Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:08:00.140264Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
title Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
spellingShingle Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
Afonso, António
fiscal sustainability
budget balance
public debt
panel data
time-varying coefficients
Eurozone
sovereign ratings
title_short Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
title_full Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
title_fullStr Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
title_full_unstemmed Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
title_sort Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
author Afonso, António
author_facet Afonso, António
Coelho, José Carlos
author_role author
author2 Coelho, José Carlos
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Afonso, António
Coelho, José Carlos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv fiscal sustainability
budget balance
public debt
panel data
time-varying coefficients
Eurozone
sovereign ratings
topic fiscal sustainability
budget balance
public debt
panel data
time-varying coefficients
Eurozone
sovereign ratings
description We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to- GDP ratio; and public debt-to-GDP ratio and one-period lagged primary government balance. The estimated fiscal reaction functions suggest the existence of a Ricardian fiscal regime. Finally, modelling via time-varying coefficients, we find that fiscal sustainability increases with growth, fiscal balances and fiscal rules indices, and decreases with trade openness, current account balances, government effectiveness index, after 2010, and with sovereign ratings assigned by the main rating agencies.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-03-21T18:33:09Z
2022-03
2022-03-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23873
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/23873
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Afonso, António e José Carlos Coelho (2022). "Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão – REM Working paper series nº 0219 – 2022
2184-108X
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG - REM – Research in Economics and Mathematics
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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