Governments' accounts and pandemics

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Jalles, João Tovar
Data de Publicação: 2023
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10362/162869
Resumo: Funding Information: The author thanks the associate editor and three anonymous referees for comments and suggestions on an earlier version. The author acknowledges financial support from FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), national funding through research grant UIDB/05069/2020. The usual disclaimer applies, and any remaining errors are the author's own responsibility. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, João Tovar Jalles.
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spelling Governments' accounts and pandemicsBudget balanceDebtFiscal policyImpulse response functionsLocal projectionNon-linearitiesPandemicsBusiness, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)AccountingEconomics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)Economics and EconometricsFunding Information: The author thanks the associate editor and three anonymous referees for comments and suggestions on an earlier version. The author acknowledges financial support from FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), national funding through research grant UIDB/05069/2020. The usual disclaimer applies, and any remaining errors are the author's own responsibility. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, João Tovar Jalles.Purpose: Early evidence suggests that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused a sharp deterioration in fiscal accounts worldwide. This paper empirically assesses the fiscal impact of previous pandemics and epidemics. Design/methodology/approach: Using a large sample of 170 countries from 2000 to 2018, this study relies on Jordà's (2005) local projection method to trace pandemics' short- to medium-term dynamic impact on several fiscal aggregates. Findings: This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses to those observed more recently with COVID-19 have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. While the fiscal effect has been economically and statistically significant and persistent, it varies; pandemics affect government expenditures more strongly than revenues in advanced economies, while the converse applies to developing countries. The author also finds that asymmetric responses depend on whether a country is characterized as a chronic fiscal surplus or deficit type. Another factor that generates an asymmetric fiscal response is the prevailing phase of the business cycle the economy was in when the pandemic shock hits. Research limitations/implications: This paper's findings provide a lower bound to what the current COVID-19 pandemic will inflict on countries’ fiscal situation. That said, the set of pandemics and epidemics used in this paper are geographically more concentrated and did not affect all countries in such a systemic and synchronized manner as did COVID-19 more recently. Originality/value: This is the first paper to explore the fiscal side of this type of health-related shocks, as most of the literature has focused on the more traditional macroeconomic effects.NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)RUNJalles, João Tovar2024-01-30T01:49:28Z2023-08-162023-08-16T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article22application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/162869eng1859-0020PURE: 82517938https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-07-2022-0125info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T05:45:54Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/162869Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:59:08.053105Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Governments' accounts and pandemics
title Governments' accounts and pandemics
spellingShingle Governments' accounts and pandemics
Jalles, João Tovar
Budget balance
Debt
Fiscal policy
Impulse response functions
Local projection
Non-linearities
Pandemics
Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
Accounting
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Economics and Econometrics
title_short Governments' accounts and pandemics
title_full Governments' accounts and pandemics
title_fullStr Governments' accounts and pandemics
title_full_unstemmed Governments' accounts and pandemics
title_sort Governments' accounts and pandemics
author Jalles, João Tovar
author_facet Jalles, João Tovar
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Jalles, João Tovar
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Budget balance
Debt
Fiscal policy
Impulse response functions
Local projection
Non-linearities
Pandemics
Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
Accounting
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Economics and Econometrics
topic Budget balance
Debt
Fiscal policy
Impulse response functions
Local projection
Non-linearities
Pandemics
Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
Accounting
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Economics and Econometrics
description Funding Information: The author thanks the associate editor and three anonymous referees for comments and suggestions on an earlier version. The author acknowledges financial support from FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), national funding through research grant UIDB/05069/2020. The usual disclaimer applies, and any remaining errors are the author's own responsibility. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, João Tovar Jalles.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-08-16
2023-08-16T00:00:00Z
2024-01-30T01:49:28Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10362/162869
url http://hdl.handle.net/10362/162869
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 1859-0020
PURE: 82517938
https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-07-2022-0125
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 22
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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