Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Smid, Marek
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Russo, S., Costa, Ana Cristina, Granell, C., Pebesma, E.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
Resumo: Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., & Pebesma, E. (2019). Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves. Urban Climate, 27(March), 388-402. DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
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spelling Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold wavesClimate change impactCold wavesEURO-CORDEXEuropean capitalsHeat wavesPopulation exposureGeography, Planning and DevelopmentEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)Urban StudiesAtmospheric ScienceSDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and CommunitiesSDG 13 - Climate ActionSmid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., & Pebesma, E. (2019). Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves. Urban Climate, 27(March), 388-402. DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events. In the period 1950–2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, in 2010 Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. The cold extremes will have decreasing tendency as global warming progresses, however due to higher variability of future climates, the cold wave hazard may remain locally important threat. Moreover, the heat and cold-related mortality will be enhanced with foreseen demographic evolution in European cities. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals (EU28 plus Moscow, Oslo and Zurich). By using an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we detected heat waves and cold waves events by deployment of Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily and its cold wave counterpart. We introduce a ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the median of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future exposure. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, results reveal that cold waves will represent some threat in mid of the century but they will not be the major threat in any of European capitals, and that they are projected to completely vanish by the end of this century. On the contrary, in near, but even more so in distant future, extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their exposure to extreme heat is of paramount importance to decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Furthermore, this simple comparative indicator helps communicating the global, complex and impersonal issue of climate change locally thus contributing to raise awareness and call for action.NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)RUNSmid, MarekRusso, S.Costa, Ana CristinaGranell, C.Pebesma, E.2019-03-28T23:28:32Z2019-03-012019-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/article15application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010eng2212-0955PURE: 11324017http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059676278&partnerID=8YFLogxKhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-03-11T04:30:50Zoai:run.unl.pt:10362/64919Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T03:34:13.209099Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
title Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
spellingShingle Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
Smid, Marek
Climate change impact
Cold waves
EURO-CORDEX
European capitals
Heat waves
Population exposure
Geography, Planning and Development
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Urban Studies
Atmospheric Science
SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 - Climate Action
title_short Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
title_full Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
title_fullStr Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
title_full_unstemmed Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
title_sort Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves
author Smid, Marek
author_facet Smid, Marek
Russo, S.
Costa, Ana Cristina
Granell, C.
Pebesma, E.
author_role author
author2 Russo, S.
Costa, Ana Cristina
Granell, C.
Pebesma, E.
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv NOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
RUN
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Smid, Marek
Russo, S.
Costa, Ana Cristina
Granell, C.
Pebesma, E.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate change impact
Cold waves
EURO-CORDEX
European capitals
Heat waves
Population exposure
Geography, Planning and Development
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Urban Studies
Atmospheric Science
SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 - Climate Action
topic Climate change impact
Cold waves
EURO-CORDEX
European capitals
Heat waves
Population exposure
Geography, Planning and Development
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Urban Studies
Atmospheric Science
SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 - Climate Action
description Smid, M., Russo, S., Costa, A. C., Granell, C., & Pebesma, E. (2019). Ranking European capitals by exposure to heat waves and cold waves. Urban Climate, 27(March), 388-402. DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-03-28T23:28:32Z
2019-03-01
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv 2212-0955
PURE: 11324017
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059676278&partnerID=8YFLogxK
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2018.12.010
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 15
application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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