Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: El-Hussain, Issa
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Omira, Rachid, Al-Habsi, Z., Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana, Deif, A., Mohamed, A. M. E.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/9340
Resumo: Tsunamis generated along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) threaten the Sur coast of Oman, according to deterministic and probabilistic analyses presented here. A validated shallow water numerical code simulates the source-to-coast propagation and quantifies the coastal hazard in terms of maximum water level, flow depth, and inundation distance. The worst-case source assumed for the eastern MSZ is a thrust earthquake of Mw 8.8. This deterministic scenario produces simulated wave heights reaching 2.5m on the Sur coast leading to limited coastal inundation extent. Because Oman adjoins the western MSZ, the probabilistic analysis includes the effect of this segment also. The probabilistic analysis shows onshore inundations exceeding 0.4km northwest of Sur where flow depths are likely to exceed 1m in 500years. Probability analysis shows lesser inundation areas with probability of exceeding 1m flow depth up to 80% in 500-year exposure time. Teletsunamis are excluded from these analyses because far-field waves of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami did not impact the Sur coast. Also excluded for simplicity are tsunamis generated by submarine slides within or near MSZ rupture areas. The results of this research provide essential information for coastal planning, engineering and management in terms of tsunami hazard and an essential step toward tsunami risk reductions in the northwest Indian Ocean.
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spelling Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast OmanTsunamiOman SeaOmanDeterministic and probabilistic methodsTsunamis generated along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) threaten the Sur coast of Oman, according to deterministic and probabilistic analyses presented here. A validated shallow water numerical code simulates the source-to-coast propagation and quantifies the coastal hazard in terms of maximum water level, flow depth, and inundation distance. The worst-case source assumed for the eastern MSZ is a thrust earthquake of Mw 8.8. This deterministic scenario produces simulated wave heights reaching 2.5m on the Sur coast leading to limited coastal inundation extent. Because Oman adjoins the western MSZ, the probabilistic analysis includes the effect of this segment also. The probabilistic analysis shows onshore inundations exceeding 0.4km northwest of Sur where flow depths are likely to exceed 1m in 500years. Probability analysis shows lesser inundation areas with probability of exceeding 1m flow depth up to 80% in 500-year exposure time. Teletsunamis are excluded from these analyses because far-field waves of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami did not impact the Sur coast. Also excluded for simplicity are tsunamis generated by submarine slides within or near MSZ rupture areas. The results of this research provide essential information for coastal planning, engineering and management in terms of tsunami hazard and an essential step toward tsunami risk reductions in the northwest Indian Ocean.SpringerOpenRCIPLEl-Hussain, IssaOmira, RachidAl-Habsi, Z.Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho VianaDeif, A.Mohamed, A. M. E.2019-01-18T08:52:21Z2018-12-182018-12-18T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/9340engEL-HUSSAIN, I.; [et al] – Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman. Geosciente Letters. ISSN 2196-4092. Vol. 5 (2018), pp. 1-132196-409210.1186/s40562-018-0129-4info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-03T09:57:54Zoai:repositorio.ipl.pt:10400.21/9340Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:17:55.829611Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
title Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
spellingShingle Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
El-Hussain, Issa
Tsunami
Oman Sea
Oman
Deterministic and probabilistic methods
title_short Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
title_full Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
title_fullStr Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
title_sort Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman
author El-Hussain, Issa
author_facet El-Hussain, Issa
Omira, Rachid
Al-Habsi, Z.
Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana
Deif, A.
Mohamed, A. M. E.
author_role author
author2 Omira, Rachid
Al-Habsi, Z.
Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana
Deif, A.
Mohamed, A. M. E.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv RCIPL
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv El-Hussain, Issa
Omira, Rachid
Al-Habsi, Z.
Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana
Deif, A.
Mohamed, A. M. E.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Tsunami
Oman Sea
Oman
Deterministic and probabilistic methods
topic Tsunami
Oman Sea
Oman
Deterministic and probabilistic methods
description Tsunamis generated along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) threaten the Sur coast of Oman, according to deterministic and probabilistic analyses presented here. A validated shallow water numerical code simulates the source-to-coast propagation and quantifies the coastal hazard in terms of maximum water level, flow depth, and inundation distance. The worst-case source assumed for the eastern MSZ is a thrust earthquake of Mw 8.8. This deterministic scenario produces simulated wave heights reaching 2.5m on the Sur coast leading to limited coastal inundation extent. Because Oman adjoins the western MSZ, the probabilistic analysis includes the effect of this segment also. The probabilistic analysis shows onshore inundations exceeding 0.4km northwest of Sur where flow depths are likely to exceed 1m in 500years. Probability analysis shows lesser inundation areas with probability of exceeding 1m flow depth up to 80% in 500-year exposure time. Teletsunamis are excluded from these analyses because far-field waves of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami did not impact the Sur coast. Also excluded for simplicity are tsunamis generated by submarine slides within or near MSZ rupture areas. The results of this research provide essential information for coastal planning, engineering and management in terms of tsunami hazard and an essential step toward tsunami risk reductions in the northwest Indian Ocean.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-12-18
2018-12-18T00:00:00Z
2019-01-18T08:52:21Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/9340
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/9340
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv EL-HUSSAIN, I.; [et al] – Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman. Geosciente Letters. ISSN 2196-4092. Vol. 5 (2018), pp. 1-13
2196-4092
10.1186/s40562-018-0129-4
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv SpringerOpen
publisher.none.fl_str_mv SpringerOpen
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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