Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377 |
Resumo: | This study analyzes the determinants of both total migration and asylum migration to Germany. For the analysis, a comprehensive empirical model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, such as per capita income differentials, links to Germany, home country characteristics (population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics), and a control for migration opportunities to alternative destinations. Panel data techniques (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 115 (134) origin countries for asylum migration (total migration) over the period of 1996–2017 or 2001–2017, depending on data availability. The analysis reveals that political, socioeconomic, and economic factors determine both total migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications, as asylum seekers most often come for several reasons. Poverty plays a distinct role in total migration and asylum migration. An alleviation of poverty in origin countries is associated with less overall migration to Germany but with more asylum migration. Increases in average temperature also impact asylum migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing forced migration. The most interesting findings are revealed when considering country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate, or low recognition rates). |
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Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motivesasylum flows; Germany; migration; migration motives; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimationThis study analyzes the determinants of both total migration and asylum migration to Germany. For the analysis, a comprehensive empirical model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, such as per capita income differentials, links to Germany, home country characteristics (population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics), and a control for migration opportunities to alternative destinations. Panel data techniques (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 115 (134) origin countries for asylum migration (total migration) over the period of 1996–2017 or 2001–2017, depending on data availability. The analysis reveals that political, socioeconomic, and economic factors determine both total migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications, as asylum seekers most often come for several reasons. Poverty plays a distinct role in total migration and asylum migration. An alleviation of poverty in origin countries is associated with less overall migration to Germany but with more asylum migration. Increases in average temperature also impact asylum migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing forced migration. The most interesting findings are revealed when considering country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate, or low recognition rates).Cogitatio2021-10-28info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/4377Politics and Governance; Vol 9, No 4 (2021): Migration and Refugee Flows: New Insights; 210-2232183-2463reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAPenghttps://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/4377https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/4377/4377https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/4377/2025Copyright (c) 2021 Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, Adriana Cardozo, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzosohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNowak-Lehmann, FelicitasCardozo, AdrianaMartínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada2022-12-22T15:16:25Zoai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/4377Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:22:22.122669Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
title |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
spellingShingle |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas asylum flows; Germany; migration; migration motives; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation |
title_short |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
title_full |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
title_fullStr |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
title_full_unstemmed |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
title_sort |
Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives |
author |
Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas |
author_facet |
Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas Cardozo, Adriana Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Cardozo, Adriana Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas Cardozo, Adriana Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
asylum flows; Germany; migration; migration motives; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation |
topic |
asylum flows; Germany; migration; migration motives; Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation |
description |
This study analyzes the determinants of both total migration and asylum migration to Germany. For the analysis, a comprehensive empirical model is set up that includes climate change, economic opportunities, such as per capita income differentials, links to Germany, home country characteristics (population growth, poverty, consumer confidence, unemployment), the political and institutional situation in the sending countries (measured by internal and external conflict, ethnic and religious tensions, government stability, law and order, military in politics), and a control for migration opportunities to alternative destinations. Panel data techniques (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for the estimation of the parameters of interest are employed using a panel of 115 (134) origin countries for asylum migration (total migration) over the period of 1996–2017 or 2001–2017, depending on data availability. The analysis reveals that political, socioeconomic, and economic factors determine both total migration and asylum migration. Economic factors are also determinants of asylum applications, as asylum seekers most often come for several reasons. Poverty plays a distinct role in total migration and asylum migration. An alleviation of poverty in origin countries is associated with less overall migration to Germany but with more asylum migration. Increases in average temperature also impact asylum migration in the expected direction, thus, increasing forced migration. The most interesting findings are revealed when considering country groupings (main migration countries, major asylum countries, countries whose asylum applicants enjoy high, intermediate, or low recognition rates). |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-28 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377 oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/4377 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377 |
identifier_str_mv |
oai:ojs.cogitatiopress.com:article/4377 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/4377 https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4377 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/4377/4377 https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/downloadSuppFile/4377/2025 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, Adriana Cardozo, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2021 Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, Adriana Cardozo, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Cogitatio |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Politics and Governance; Vol 9, No 4 (2021): Migration and Refugee Flows: New Insights; 210-223 2183-2463 reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799130669532577792 |