Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25518 |
Resumo: | We assess the time‐varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro‐area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that (a) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; (b) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; (c) the time‐varying coefficient model shows that the 2008– 2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; and (d) expenditure‐based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainabilityCausalityFiscal RulesFiscal SustainabilityImpulse Response FunctionsLogistic ModelTime‐Varying CoefficientsWe assess the time‐varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro‐area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that (a) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; (b) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; (c) the time‐varying coefficient model shows that the 2008– 2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; and (d) expenditure‐based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Repositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João Tovar2022-09-16T15:02:06Z20172017-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25518engAfonso, António and João Tovar Jalles. (2017). "Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability". International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 22, No. 3: pp. 244-254.10.1002/ijfe.1582info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:55:05Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25518Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T17:09:22.334498Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
title |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
spellingShingle |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability Afonso, António Causality Fiscal Rules Fiscal Sustainability Impulse Response Functions Logistic Model Time‐Varying Coefficients |
title_short |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
title_full |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
title_fullStr |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
title_sort |
Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability |
author |
Afonso, António |
author_facet |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jalles, João Tovar |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António Jalles, João Tovar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Causality Fiscal Rules Fiscal Sustainability Impulse Response Functions Logistic Model Time‐Varying Coefficients |
topic |
Causality Fiscal Rules Fiscal Sustainability Impulse Response Functions Logistic Model Time‐Varying Coefficients |
description |
We assess the time‐varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro‐area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that (a) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; (b) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; (c) the time‐varying coefficient model shows that the 2008– 2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; and (d) expenditure‐based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022-09-16T15:02:06Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25518 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25518 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Afonso, António and João Tovar Jalles. (2017). "Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability". International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 22, No. 3: pp. 244-254. 10.1002/ijfe.1582 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799131188447674368 |