Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/37560 |
Resumo: | The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC. |
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Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and IndonesiaProjection and predictionTropismScience & TechnologyThe production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.The Portuguese-based authors thank the FCT Strategic Project of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and the Project "BioEnv - Biotechnology and Bioengineering for a sustainable world", REF. NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000048, co-funded by the Programa Operacional Regional do Norte (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), QREN, FEDER.Nature Publishing GroupUniversidade do MinhoPaterson, R. R. M.Kumar, LalitTaylor, SubhashniLima, Nelson2015-09-242015-09-24T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1822/37560engPaterson, R. R. M.; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson, Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia. Scientific Reports, 5(14457).2045-23222045-232210.1038/srep1445726399638http://www.nature.com/srep/index.htmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-07-21T12:16:41Zoai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/37560Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T19:09:17.566139Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
title |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
spellingShingle |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia Paterson, R. R. M. Projection and prediction Tropism Science & Technology |
title_short |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
title_full |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
title_fullStr |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
title_sort |
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia |
author |
Paterson, R. R. M. |
author_facet |
Paterson, R. R. M. Kumar, Lalit Taylor, Subhashni Lima, Nelson |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Kumar, Lalit Taylor, Subhashni Lima, Nelson |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade do Minho |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Paterson, R. R. M. Kumar, Lalit Taylor, Subhashni Lima, Nelson |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Projection and prediction Tropism Science & Technology |
topic |
Projection and prediction Tropism Science & Technology |
description |
The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-09-24 2015-09-24T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/37560 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1822/37560 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Paterson, R. R. M.; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson, Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia. Scientific Reports, 5(14457). 2045-2322 2045-2322 10.1038/srep14457 26399638 http://www.nature.com/srep/index.html |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature Publishing Group |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature Publishing Group |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799132517670846464 |