Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study
| Autor(a) principal: | |
|---|---|
| Data de Publicação: | 2017 |
| Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/30473 |
Resumo: | This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. |
| id |
RCAP_7bba3219a239aa6b9ea8406959af3bed |
|---|---|
| oai_identifier_str |
oai:comum.rcaap.pt:10400.26/30473 |
| network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
| network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| repository_id_str |
7160 |
| spelling |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling studyYellow fever virusAngolaDemocratic Republic of CongoThis is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.BACKGROUND: Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. METHODS: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region. FINDINGS: The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34-0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52-0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13-0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92-0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy.ElsevierRepositório ComumKraemer, Moritz U. G.Faria, Nuno R.Reiner Jr, Robert C.Golding, NickNikolay, BirgitStasse, StephanieJohansson, Michael A.Salje, HenrikFaye, OusmaneWint, G. R. WilliamNiedrig, MatthiasShearer, Freya M.Hill, Sarah C.Thompson, Robin N.Bisanzio, DonalTaveira, NunoNax, Heinrich H.Pradelski, Bary S. R.Nsoesie, Elaine O.Murphy, Nicholas R.Bogoch, Isaac I.Khan, KamranBrownstein, John S.Tatem, Andrew J.Oliveira, Tulio deSmith, David L.Sall, Amadou A.Pybus, Oliver G. PybusHay, Simon I.Cauchemez, Simon2019-12-13T10:13:50Z2017-03-01T00:00:00Z2017-03-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/30473engLancet Infect Dis. 2017 Mar;17(3):330-338. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-81473-309910.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-8info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2022-10-06T14:53:52Zoai:comum.rcaap.pt:10400.26/30473Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T15:09:38.071401Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| title |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| spellingShingle |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Yellow fever virus Angola Democratic Republic of Congo |
| title_short |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| title_full |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| title_sort |
Spread of Yellow Fever Virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic Congo 2015-2016: a modelling study |
| author |
Kraemer, Moritz U. G. |
| author_facet |
Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Faria, Nuno R. Reiner Jr, Robert C. Golding, Nick Nikolay, Birgit Stasse, Stephanie Johansson, Michael A. Salje, Henrik Faye, Ousmane Wint, G. R. William Niedrig, Matthias Shearer, Freya M. Hill, Sarah C. Thompson, Robin N. Bisanzio, Donal Taveira, Nuno Nax, Heinrich H. Pradelski, Bary S. R. Nsoesie, Elaine O. Murphy, Nicholas R. Bogoch, Isaac I. Khan, Kamran Brownstein, John S. Tatem, Andrew J. Oliveira, Tulio de Smith, David L. Sall, Amadou A. Pybus, Oliver G. Pybus Hay, Simon I. Cauchemez, Simon |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Faria, Nuno R. Reiner Jr, Robert C. Golding, Nick Nikolay, Birgit Stasse, Stephanie Johansson, Michael A. Salje, Henrik Faye, Ousmane Wint, G. R. William Niedrig, Matthias Shearer, Freya M. Hill, Sarah C. Thompson, Robin N. Bisanzio, Donal Taveira, Nuno Nax, Heinrich H. Pradelski, Bary S. R. Nsoesie, Elaine O. Murphy, Nicholas R. Bogoch, Isaac I. Khan, Kamran Brownstein, John S. Tatem, Andrew J. Oliveira, Tulio de Smith, David L. Sall, Amadou A. Pybus, Oliver G. Pybus Hay, Simon I. Cauchemez, Simon |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Comum |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Faria, Nuno R. Reiner Jr, Robert C. Golding, Nick Nikolay, Birgit Stasse, Stephanie Johansson, Michael A. Salje, Henrik Faye, Ousmane Wint, G. R. William Niedrig, Matthias Shearer, Freya M. Hill, Sarah C. Thompson, Robin N. Bisanzio, Donal Taveira, Nuno Nax, Heinrich H. Pradelski, Bary S. R. Nsoesie, Elaine O. Murphy, Nicholas R. Bogoch, Isaac I. Khan, Kamran Brownstein, John S. Tatem, Andrew J. Oliveira, Tulio de Smith, David L. Sall, Amadou A. Pybus, Oliver G. Pybus Hay, Simon I. Cauchemez, Simon |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Yellow fever virus Angola Democratic Republic of Congo |
| topic |
Yellow fever virus Angola Democratic Republic of Congo |
| description |
This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. |
| publishDate |
2017 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2017-03-01T00:00:00Z 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z 2019-12-13T10:13:50Z |
| dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/30473 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/30473 |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
| language |
eng |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Mar;17(3):330-338. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-8 1473-3099 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-8 |
| dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
| instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
| instacron_str |
RCAAP |
| institution |
RCAAP |
| reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
| _version_ |
1799129965894041600 |