On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Caetano, José Manuel
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Caleiro, António Bento
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608
https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2018.06.03.002
Resumo: The synchronization of business cycles is strictly related with the functioning conditions in the currency areas. Being a general requirement for membership in such an area, the synchronization of business cycles was probed by the view that, in any case, it would result from the very operation of the optimal currency zone. For Eurasia as a broad context, the European perspective seems to be important. For instance, the experience of a formal economic union such as the one that has existed in Europe since 1999 could be harnessed to better understand the challenges that a union of this kind might face in Eurasia, just as the one that has recently been constituted. The article considers this approach, through the analysis of the evolution of the synchronization of business cycles, as a relevant element in the (smooth) functioning of any economic and monetary union. Taking this into account, we consider a reasonably long time period (1990-2016) and a large sample of countries (50), i.e. all those integrated into some kind of formal economic union existing in this relevant geopolitical region, namely the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as 17 non-integrated countries, as a control group. In what concerns the results, during the 1990-1998 period, the degree of business cycles synchronization was, in general, fairly low, even for countries already integrated in an economic community. The degree of synchronization of business cycles has, generally, fairly increased in the period 1999-2007, notably in European countries (not in the EU alone). Finally, in the period 2008-2016, which includes the recent global financial crisis, there was a broad decline in the synchronization of business cycles, which was not so obvious for the countries integrated in a formal economic union. In fact, it seems to be possible to conclude that belonging to a union of this kind is a crucial prerequisite for the inexistence of evidently idiosyncratic business cycles.
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spelling On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsiaBusiness CyclesEurAsiaEurasian Economic UnionEuropean UnionThe synchronization of business cycles is strictly related with the functioning conditions in the currency areas. Being a general requirement for membership in such an area, the synchronization of business cycles was probed by the view that, in any case, it would result from the very operation of the optimal currency zone. For Eurasia as a broad context, the European perspective seems to be important. For instance, the experience of a formal economic union such as the one that has existed in Europe since 1999 could be harnessed to better understand the challenges that a union of this kind might face in Eurasia, just as the one that has recently been constituted. The article considers this approach, through the analysis of the evolution of the synchronization of business cycles, as a relevant element in the (smooth) functioning of any economic and monetary union. Taking this into account, we consider a reasonably long time period (1990-2016) and a large sample of countries (50), i.e. all those integrated into some kind of formal economic union existing in this relevant geopolitical region, namely the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as 17 non-integrated countries, as a control group. In what concerns the results, during the 1990-1998 period, the degree of business cycles synchronization was, in general, fairly low, even for countries already integrated in an economic community. The degree of synchronization of business cycles has, generally, fairly increased in the period 1999-2007, notably in European countries (not in the EU alone). Finally, in the period 2008-2016, which includes the recent global financial crisis, there was a broad decline in the synchronization of business cycles, which was not so obvious for the countries integrated in a formal economic union. In fact, it seems to be possible to conclude that belonging to a union of this kind is a crucial prerequisite for the inexistence of evidently idiosyncratic business cycles.2018-10-12T16:36:03Z2018-10-122018-10-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608http://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2018.06.03.002engCaetano, José Manuel; Caleiro, António Bento (2018), "On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia", Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(3),13-33.https://eurasianpublications.com/Eurasian-Journal-of-Economics-and-Finance/Vol.-6-No.3-2018/EJEF-2.pdfCEFAGE - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais com Arbitragem Científicajcaetano@uevora.ptcaleiro@uevora.pt640Caetano, José ManuelCaleiro, António Bentoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:15:52Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/23608Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:14:25.101412Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
title On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
spellingShingle On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
Caetano, José Manuel
Business Cycles
EurAsia
Eurasian Economic Union
European Union
title_short On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
title_full On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
title_fullStr On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
title_full_unstemmed On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
title_sort On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia
author Caetano, José Manuel
author_facet Caetano, José Manuel
Caleiro, António Bento
author_role author
author2 Caleiro, António Bento
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Caetano, José Manuel
Caleiro, António Bento
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Business Cycles
EurAsia
Eurasian Economic Union
European Union
topic Business Cycles
EurAsia
Eurasian Economic Union
European Union
description The synchronization of business cycles is strictly related with the functioning conditions in the currency areas. Being a general requirement for membership in such an area, the synchronization of business cycles was probed by the view that, in any case, it would result from the very operation of the optimal currency zone. For Eurasia as a broad context, the European perspective seems to be important. For instance, the experience of a formal economic union such as the one that has existed in Europe since 1999 could be harnessed to better understand the challenges that a union of this kind might face in Eurasia, just as the one that has recently been constituted. The article considers this approach, through the analysis of the evolution of the synchronization of business cycles, as a relevant element in the (smooth) functioning of any economic and monetary union. Taking this into account, we consider a reasonably long time period (1990-2016) and a large sample of countries (50), i.e. all those integrated into some kind of formal economic union existing in this relevant geopolitical region, namely the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as 17 non-integrated countries, as a control group. In what concerns the results, during the 1990-1998 period, the degree of business cycles synchronization was, in general, fairly low, even for countries already integrated in an economic community. The degree of synchronization of business cycles has, generally, fairly increased in the period 1999-2007, notably in European countries (not in the EU alone). Finally, in the period 2008-2016, which includes the recent global financial crisis, there was a broad decline in the synchronization of business cycles, which was not so obvious for the countries integrated in a formal economic union. In fact, it seems to be possible to conclude that belonging to a union of this kind is a crucial prerequisite for the inexistence of evidently idiosyncratic business cycles.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-10-12T16:36:03Z
2018-10-12
2018-10-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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format article
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dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608
https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2018.06.03.002
url http://hdl.handle.net/10174/23608
https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2018.06.03.002
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Caetano, José Manuel; Caleiro, António Bento (2018), "On Business Cycles Synchronization -- Some directions for the EurAsia", Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(3),13-33.
https://eurasianpublications.com/Eurasian-Journal-of-Economics-and-Finance/Vol.-6-No.3-2018/EJEF-2.pdf
CEFAGE - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais com Arbitragem Científica
jcaetano@uevora.pt
caleiro@uevora.pt
640
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