The price relevance of fiscal developments

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Afonso, António
Data de Publicação: 2015
Outros Autores: Jalles, João Tovar
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10676
Resumo: We use SURE estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1-2013Q4, show that: improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields; better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.
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spelling The price relevance of fiscal developmentsPrice LevelYieldsRicardian RegimesSURELocal ProjectionImpulse Response FunctionWe use SURE estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1-2013Q4, show that: improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields; better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.ISEG – Departamento de EconomiaRepositório da Universidade de LisboaAfonso, AntónioJalles, João Tovar2016-01-15T16:14:33Z20152015-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10676engAfonso, António e João Tovar Jalles .2015. "The price relevance of fiscal developments". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 16-2015/DE/UECE2183-1815info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:40:58Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/10676Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:57:06.069569Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The price relevance of fiscal developments
title The price relevance of fiscal developments
spellingShingle The price relevance of fiscal developments
Afonso, António
Price Level
Yields
Ricardian Regimes
SURE
Local Projection
Impulse Response Function
title_short The price relevance of fiscal developments
title_full The price relevance of fiscal developments
title_fullStr The price relevance of fiscal developments
title_full_unstemmed The price relevance of fiscal developments
title_sort The price relevance of fiscal developments
author Afonso, António
author_facet Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
author_role author
author2 Jalles, João Tovar
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Afonso, António
Jalles, João Tovar
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Price Level
Yields
Ricardian Regimes
SURE
Local Projection
Impulse Response Function
topic Price Level
Yields
Ricardian Regimes
SURE
Local Projection
Impulse Response Function
description We use SURE estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1-2013Q4, show that: improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields; better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
2015-01-01T00:00:00Z
2016-01-15T16:14:33Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10676
url http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10676
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Afonso, António e João Tovar Jalles .2015. "The price relevance of fiscal developments". Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão. DE Working papers nº 16-2015/DE/UECE
2183-1815
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – Departamento de Economia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv ISEG – Departamento de Economia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
institution RCAAP
reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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