The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2021 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13222 |
Resumo: | The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning. |
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The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessmentEarthquake-generated tsunamiHazard uncertainty analysisEnsemble modelingMaximum inundation heightNEAMThe NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.FRONTIERS MEDIA SARCIPLBasili, RobertoBrizuela, BeatrizHerrero, AndreIqbal, SarfrazLorito, StefanoMaesano, Francesco EmanueleMurphy, ShanePerfetti, PaoloRomano, FabrizioScala, AntonioSELVA, JacopoTaroni, MatteoTiberti, Mara MonicaThio, Hong KieTonini, RobertoVolpe, ManuelaGlimsdal, SylfestHarbitz, Carl BonnevieLovholt, FinnBaptista, Maria Ana Carvalho VianaCarrilho, FernandoMatias, LuisOmira, RachidBabeyko, AndreyHoechner, AndreasGurbuz, MucahitPekcan, OnurYalciner, AhmetCanals, MiquelLastras, GaldericAgalos, ApostolosPapadopoulos, GerassimosTRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNABenchekroun, SabahJaouadi, Hedi AgrebiBen Ahmed, SamirBouallegue, AtefHamdi, HasseneOueslati, FouedAmato, AlessandroARMIGLIATO, ALBERTOBehrens, JoernDavies, GarethDi Bucci, DanielaDolce, MauroGeist, EricGONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M.Gonzalez, MauricioMacías, JorgeMeletti, CarloSozdinler, Ceren OzerPagani, MarcoParsons, TomPolet, JaschaPower, WilliamSorensen, MathildeZaytsev, Andrey2021-04-22T14:08:21Z2021-03-052021-03-05T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13222engBASILI, Roberto; [et al] - The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). Frontiers in Earth Science. eISSN 2296-6463. Vol. 8 (2021), pp. 1-2910.3389/feart.2020.6165942296-6463info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-08-03T10:07:35Zoai:repositorio.ipl.pt:10400.21/13222Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T20:21:12.740581Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
spellingShingle |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) Basili, Roberto Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment Earthquake-generated tsunami Hazard uncertainty analysis Ensemble modeling Maximum inundation height NEAM |
title_short |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_full |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_fullStr |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_full_unstemmed |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
title_sort |
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) |
author |
Basili, Roberto |
author_facet |
Basili, Roberto Brizuela, Beatriz Herrero, Andre Iqbal, Sarfraz Lorito, Stefano Maesano, Francesco Emanuele Murphy, Shane Perfetti, Paolo Romano, Fabrizio Scala, Antonio SELVA, Jacopo Taroni, Matteo Tiberti, Mara Monica Thio, Hong Kie Tonini, Roberto Volpe, Manuela Glimsdal, Sylfest Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie Lovholt, Finn Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Carrilho, Fernando Matias, Luis Omira, Rachid Babeyko, Andrey Hoechner, Andreas Gurbuz, Mucahit Pekcan, Onur Yalciner, Ahmet Canals, Miquel Lastras, Galderic Agalos, Apostolos Papadopoulos, Gerassimos TRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA Benchekroun, Sabah Jaouadi, Hedi Agrebi Ben Ahmed, Samir Bouallegue, Atef Hamdi, Hassene Oueslati, Foued Amato, Alessandro ARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO Behrens, Joern Davies, Gareth Di Bucci, Daniela Dolce, Mauro Geist, Eric GONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M. Gonzalez, Mauricio Macías, Jorge Meletti, Carlo Sozdinler, Ceren Ozer Pagani, Marco Parsons, Tom Polet, Jascha Power, William Sorensen, Mathilde Zaytsev, Andrey |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Brizuela, Beatriz Herrero, Andre Iqbal, Sarfraz Lorito, Stefano Maesano, Francesco Emanuele Murphy, Shane Perfetti, Paolo Romano, Fabrizio Scala, Antonio SELVA, Jacopo Taroni, Matteo Tiberti, Mara Monica Thio, Hong Kie Tonini, Roberto Volpe, Manuela Glimsdal, Sylfest Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie Lovholt, Finn Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Carrilho, Fernando Matias, Luis Omira, Rachid Babeyko, Andrey Hoechner, Andreas Gurbuz, Mucahit Pekcan, Onur Yalciner, Ahmet Canals, Miquel Lastras, Galderic Agalos, Apostolos Papadopoulos, Gerassimos TRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA Benchekroun, Sabah Jaouadi, Hedi Agrebi Ben Ahmed, Samir Bouallegue, Atef Hamdi, Hassene Oueslati, Foued Amato, Alessandro ARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO Behrens, Joern Davies, Gareth Di Bucci, Daniela Dolce, Mauro Geist, Eric GONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M. Gonzalez, Mauricio Macías, Jorge Meletti, Carlo Sozdinler, Ceren Ozer Pagani, Marco Parsons, Tom Polet, Jascha Power, William Sorensen, Mathilde Zaytsev, Andrey |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
RCIPL |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Basili, Roberto Brizuela, Beatriz Herrero, Andre Iqbal, Sarfraz Lorito, Stefano Maesano, Francesco Emanuele Murphy, Shane Perfetti, Paolo Romano, Fabrizio Scala, Antonio SELVA, Jacopo Taroni, Matteo Tiberti, Mara Monica Thio, Hong Kie Tonini, Roberto Volpe, Manuela Glimsdal, Sylfest Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie Lovholt, Finn Baptista, Maria Ana Carvalho Viana Carrilho, Fernando Matias, Luis Omira, Rachid Babeyko, Andrey Hoechner, Andreas Gurbuz, Mucahit Pekcan, Onur Yalciner, Ahmet Canals, Miquel Lastras, Galderic Agalos, Apostolos Papadopoulos, Gerassimos TRIANTAFYLLOU, IOANNA Benchekroun, Sabah Jaouadi, Hedi Agrebi Ben Ahmed, Samir Bouallegue, Atef Hamdi, Hassene Oueslati, Foued Amato, Alessandro ARMIGLIATO, ALBERTO Behrens, Joern Davies, Gareth Di Bucci, Daniela Dolce, Mauro Geist, Eric GONZALEZ-VIDA, J.M. Gonzalez, Mauricio Macías, Jorge Meletti, Carlo Sozdinler, Ceren Ozer Pagani, Marco Parsons, Tom Polet, Jascha Power, William Sorensen, Mathilde Zaytsev, Andrey |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment Earthquake-generated tsunami Hazard uncertainty analysis Ensemble modeling Maximum inundation height NEAM |
topic |
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment Earthquake-generated tsunami Hazard uncertainty analysis Ensemble modeling Maximum inundation height NEAM |
description |
The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a threephase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models' weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (P01) distributed at an average spacing of -20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP approximate to 2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM1 8 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM1 8 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-04-22T14:08:21Z 2021-03-05 2021-03-05T00:00:00Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13222 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.21/13222 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
BASILI, Roberto; [et al] - The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18). Frontiers in Earth Science. eISSN 2296-6463. Vol. 8 (2021), pp. 1-29 10.3389/feart.2020.616594 2296-6463 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799133483022417920 |