Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Araújo, Joana R.
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Ramos, Alexandre M., Soares, Pedro M.M., Melo, Raquel, Oliveira, Sérgio C., Trigo, Ricardo M.
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7
Resumo: Rainfall is considered the most important physical process for landslide triggering in Portugal. It is expected that changes in the precipitation regimes in the region, as a direct consequence of climate change, will have influence in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events that will be more frequently, throughout the century. The aim of this study relied on the assessment of the projected future changes in the extreme precipitation over Portugal mainland and quantifying the correlation between extreme rainfall events and landslide events through Rainfall Triggering Thresholds (RTTs). This methodology was applied for two specific locations within two Portuguese areas of great geomorphological interest. To analyze the past frequency of landslide events, we resorted to the DISASTER database. To evaluate the possible projected changes in the extreme precipitation, we used the Iberia02 dataset and the EURO-CORDEX models’ runs at a 0.11° spatial resolution. It was analyzed the models’ performance to simulate extreme values in the precipitation series. The simulated precipitation relied on RCM-GCM models’ runs, from EURO-CORDEX, and a multimodel ensemble mean. The extreme precipitation assessment relied on the values associated to the highest percentiles, and to the values associated to the RTTs’ percentiles. To evaluate the possible future changes of the precipitation series, both at the most representative percentiles and RTTs’ percentiles, a comparison was made between the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX historical runs (1971–2000) and the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX future runs (2071–2100), considering two concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the models’ performance, the multimodel ensemble mean appeared to be within the best representing models. As for the projected changes in the extreme precipitation for the end of the century, when following the RCP 4.5 scenario, most models projected an increase in the extreme values, whereas, when following the RCP 8.5 scenario, most models projected a decrease in the extreme values.
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spelling Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenariosClimate changeExtreme precipitationLandslide eventsRegional climate modellingPortugalRainfall is considered the most important physical process for landslide triggering in Portugal. It is expected that changes in the precipitation regimes in the region, as a direct consequence of climate change, will have influence in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events that will be more frequently, throughout the century. The aim of this study relied on the assessment of the projected future changes in the extreme precipitation over Portugal mainland and quantifying the correlation between extreme rainfall events and landslide events through Rainfall Triggering Thresholds (RTTs). This methodology was applied for two specific locations within two Portuguese areas of great geomorphological interest. To analyze the past frequency of landslide events, we resorted to the DISASTER database. To evaluate the possible projected changes in the extreme precipitation, we used the Iberia02 dataset and the EURO-CORDEX models’ runs at a 0.11° spatial resolution. It was analyzed the models’ performance to simulate extreme values in the precipitation series. The simulated precipitation relied on RCM-GCM models’ runs, from EURO-CORDEX, and a multimodel ensemble mean. The extreme precipitation assessment relied on the values associated to the highest percentiles, and to the values associated to the RTTs’ percentiles. To evaluate the possible future changes of the precipitation series, both at the most representative percentiles and RTTs’ percentiles, a comparison was made between the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX historical runs (1971–2000) and the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX future runs (2071–2100), considering two concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the models’ performance, the multimodel ensemble mean appeared to be within the best representing models. As for the projected changes in the extreme precipitation for the end of the century, when following the RCP 4.5 scenario, most models projected an increase in the extreme values, whereas, when following the RCP 8.5 scenario, most models projected a decrease in the extreme values.Springer2022-08-26T16:37:16Z2022-08-262022-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426http://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7porAraújo, J.R., Ramos, A.M., Soares, P.M.M., Melo, R., Oliveira, S.C., Trigo, R.M. Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios. Landslides (2022).https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7ndndndraquel.melo@uevora.ptndndAraújo, Joana R.Ramos, Alexandre M.Soares, Pedro M.M.Melo, RaquelOliveira, Sérgio C.Trigo, Ricardo M.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2024-01-03T19:33:08Zoai:dspace.uevora.pt:10174/32426Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T01:21:26.296907Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
title Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
spellingShingle Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
Araújo, Joana R.
Climate change
Extreme precipitation
Landslide events
Regional climate modelling
Portugal
title_short Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
title_full Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
title_sort Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios
author Araújo, Joana R.
author_facet Araújo, Joana R.
Ramos, Alexandre M.
Soares, Pedro M.M.
Melo, Raquel
Oliveira, Sérgio C.
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author_role author
author2 Ramos, Alexandre M.
Soares, Pedro M.M.
Melo, Raquel
Oliveira, Sérgio C.
Trigo, Ricardo M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Araújo, Joana R.
Ramos, Alexandre M.
Soares, Pedro M.M.
Melo, Raquel
Oliveira, Sérgio C.
Trigo, Ricardo M.
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Climate change
Extreme precipitation
Landslide events
Regional climate modelling
Portugal
topic Climate change
Extreme precipitation
Landslide events
Regional climate modelling
Portugal
description Rainfall is considered the most important physical process for landslide triggering in Portugal. It is expected that changes in the precipitation regimes in the region, as a direct consequence of climate change, will have influence in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events that will be more frequently, throughout the century. The aim of this study relied on the assessment of the projected future changes in the extreme precipitation over Portugal mainland and quantifying the correlation between extreme rainfall events and landslide events through Rainfall Triggering Thresholds (RTTs). This methodology was applied for two specific locations within two Portuguese areas of great geomorphological interest. To analyze the past frequency of landslide events, we resorted to the DISASTER database. To evaluate the possible projected changes in the extreme precipitation, we used the Iberia02 dataset and the EURO-CORDEX models’ runs at a 0.11° spatial resolution. It was analyzed the models’ performance to simulate extreme values in the precipitation series. The simulated precipitation relied on RCM-GCM models’ runs, from EURO-CORDEX, and a multimodel ensemble mean. The extreme precipitation assessment relied on the values associated to the highest percentiles, and to the values associated to the RTTs’ percentiles. To evaluate the possible future changes of the precipitation series, both at the most representative percentiles and RTTs’ percentiles, a comparison was made between the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX historical runs (1971–2000) and the simulated values from EURO-CORDEX future runs (2071–2100), considering two concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the models’ performance, the multimodel ensemble mean appeared to be within the best representing models. As for the projected changes in the extreme precipitation for the end of the century, when following the RCP 4.5 scenario, most models projected an increase in the extreme values, whereas, when following the RCP 8.5 scenario, most models projected a decrease in the extreme values.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-08-26T16:37:16Z
2022-08-26
2022-01-01T00:00:00Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426
http://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7
url http://hdl.handle.net/10174/32426
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Araújo, J.R., Ramos, A.M., Soares, P.M.M., Melo, R., Oliveira, S.C., Trigo, R.M. Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios. Landslides (2022).
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-022-01895-7
nd
nd
nd
raquel.melo@uevora.pt
nd
nd
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron:RCAAP
instname_str Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
instacron_str RCAAP
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collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
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