Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Zêzere, José
Data de Publicação: 2008
Outros Autores: Garcia, R.A.C., Oliveira, Sérgio, Reis, Eusébio
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10451/37033
Resumo: The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.
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spelling Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)LandslidesHazard assessmentVulnerabilityRisk analysisDirect costsLisbon (Portugal)The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaZêzere, JoséGarcia, R.A.C.Oliveira, SérgioReis, Eusébio2019-02-18T11:08:48Z20082008-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/37033engZêzere, J. L., Garcia, R. A. C., Oliveira, S. C., Reis, E. (2008). Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Geomorphology, 94(3–4), pp. 467–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040.0169-555X10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:33:59Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/37033Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:51:10.401499Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
title Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
spellingShingle Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
Zêzere, José
Landslides
Hazard assessment
Vulnerability
Risk analysis
Direct costs
Lisbon (Portugal)
title_short Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
title_full Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
title_fullStr Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
title_sort Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
author Zêzere, José
author_facet Zêzere, José
Garcia, R.A.C.
Oliveira, Sérgio
Reis, Eusébio
author_role author
author2 Garcia, R.A.C.
Oliveira, Sérgio
Reis, Eusébio
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Zêzere, José
Garcia, R.A.C.
Oliveira, Sérgio
Reis, Eusébio
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Landslides
Hazard assessment
Vulnerability
Risk analysis
Direct costs
Lisbon (Portugal)
topic Landslides
Hazard assessment
Vulnerability
Risk analysis
Direct costs
Lisbon (Portugal)
description The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.
publishDate 2008
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2008
2008-01-01T00:00:00Z
2019-02-18T11:08:48Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10451/37033
url http://hdl.handle.net/10451/37033
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Zêzere, J. L., Garcia, R. A. C., Oliveira, S. C., Reis, E. (2008). Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Geomorphology, 94(3–4), pp. 467–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040.
0169-555X
10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.10.040
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv metadata only access
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv metadata only access
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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reponame_str Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
collection Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação
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