Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ?
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2010 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4242 |
Resumo: | Not all wildfire ignitions result in burned areas of a similar size. The aim of this study was to explore whether there was a size-dependent pattern (in terms of resulting burned area) of fire ignitions in Portugal. For that purpose we characterised 71,618 fire ignitions occurring in the country in the period 2001–2003, in terms of population density in the local parish, land cover type and distance to roads. We then assigned each ignition into subsets of five classes according to the resulting burned area:[5 ha, [50 ha,[100 ha,[250 ha,[500 ha. The probability of an ignition resulting in different burned area classes was modelled using binary logistic regression, and the relative importance, strength and signal (positive or negative) of the three explanatory variables compared across the models obtained for the different classes. Finally, we explored the implications of land cover and population density changes during the period 1990–2000 in Portugal for the likelihood of ignitions resulting in wildfires[500 ha. Population density was the more important variable explaining the resulting burned area, with the probability of an ignition resulting in a large burned area being inversely related to population density. In terms of land cover, ignitions resulting in large burned areas were more likely to occur in shrubland and forest areas. Finally, ignitions farther away from roads were more likely to result in large burns. The current land cover trends (decrease of agricultural land and increase in shrublands) and population trends (decline in population densities except near the coast) are increasing the probability that ignitions will result in large fires in vast regions of the country. |
id |
RCAP_94076f785edb7846de6647271609f56c |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/4242 |
network_acronym_str |
RCAP |
network_name_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository_id_str |
7160 |
spelling |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ?fireland coveraccessibilitypopulation densitylandscape managementPortugalNot all wildfire ignitions result in burned areas of a similar size. The aim of this study was to explore whether there was a size-dependent pattern (in terms of resulting burned area) of fire ignitions in Portugal. For that purpose we characterised 71,618 fire ignitions occurring in the country in the period 2001–2003, in terms of population density in the local parish, land cover type and distance to roads. We then assigned each ignition into subsets of five classes according to the resulting burned area:[5 ha, [50 ha,[100 ha,[250 ha,[500 ha. The probability of an ignition resulting in different burned area classes was modelled using binary logistic regression, and the relative importance, strength and signal (positive or negative) of the three explanatory variables compared across the models obtained for the different classes. Finally, we explored the implications of land cover and population density changes during the period 1990–2000 in Portugal for the likelihood of ignitions resulting in wildfires[500 ha. Population density was the more important variable explaining the resulting burned area, with the probability of an ignition resulting in a large burned area being inversely related to population density. In terms of land cover, ignitions resulting in large burned areas were more likely to occur in shrubland and forest areas. Finally, ignitions farther away from roads were more likely to result in large burns. The current land cover trends (decrease of agricultural land and increase in shrublands) and population trends (decline in population densities except near the coast) are increasing the probability that ignitions will result in large fires in vast regions of the country.SpringerRepositório da Universidade de LisboaMoreira, FranciscoCatry, FilipeRego, Francisco CastroBacao, Fernando2012-04-19T09:53:30Z20102010-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4242eng"Landscape Ecology". ISSN 0921-2973. 25 (2010) 1405-14170921-2973info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-03-06T14:35:15Zoai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/4242Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T16:51:56.759708Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
title |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
spellingShingle |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? Moreira, Francisco fire land cover accessibility population density landscape management Portugal |
title_short |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
title_full |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
title_fullStr |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
title_sort |
Size-dependent pattern of wilfire ignitions in Portugal: when do ignitions turn into big fires ? |
author |
Moreira, Francisco |
author_facet |
Moreira, Francisco Catry, Filipe Rego, Francisco Castro Bacao, Fernando |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Catry, Filipe Rego, Francisco Castro Bacao, Fernando |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Moreira, Francisco Catry, Filipe Rego, Francisco Castro Bacao, Fernando |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
fire land cover accessibility population density landscape management Portugal |
topic |
fire land cover accessibility population density landscape management Portugal |
description |
Not all wildfire ignitions result in burned areas of a similar size. The aim of this study was to explore whether there was a size-dependent pattern (in terms of resulting burned area) of fire ignitions in Portugal. For that purpose we characterised 71,618 fire ignitions occurring in the country in the period 2001–2003, in terms of population density in the local parish, land cover type and distance to roads. We then assigned each ignition into subsets of five classes according to the resulting burned area:[5 ha, [50 ha,[100 ha,[250 ha,[500 ha. The probability of an ignition resulting in different burned area classes was modelled using binary logistic regression, and the relative importance, strength and signal (positive or negative) of the three explanatory variables compared across the models obtained for the different classes. Finally, we explored the implications of land cover and population density changes during the period 1990–2000 in Portugal for the likelihood of ignitions resulting in wildfires[500 ha. Population density was the more important variable explaining the resulting burned area, with the probability of an ignition resulting in a large burned area being inversely related to population density. In terms of land cover, ignitions resulting in large burned areas were more likely to occur in shrubland and forest areas. Finally, ignitions farther away from roads were more likely to result in large burns. The current land cover trends (decrease of agricultural land and increase in shrublands) and population trends (decline in population densities except near the coast) are increasing the probability that ignitions will result in large fires in vast regions of the country. |
publishDate |
2010 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2010 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z 2012-04-19T09:53:30Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4242 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4242 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
"Landscape Ecology". ISSN 0921-2973. 25 (2010) 1405-1417 0921-2973 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
instname_str |
Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
_version_ |
1799130996022444032 |