Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42801 |
Resumo: | Decisions about future land use are complex and involve a wide range of factors. The perceptions, intentions, and interests of the stakeholders involved are usually unpredictable. Different stakeholders manage land by choosing different future options and revealing different expectations. Greater proximity to built-up areas confronts farmers with challenges about future land use and land cover change (LUCC). This study aims to identify how external drivers can affect farmers’ future LUCC intentions focusing on conversion of agricultural land to urban development. We explore two scenarios projected for the time horizon of 2025 based on farmers’ LUCC intentions: A0 – current social and economic trend; and B0 – increasing demand for urban development. We selected the Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal) as case study, an area predominantly agricultural but with a progressively urban intensification in the past two decades. We conducted interviews to capture the farmers’ LUCC intentions and modelled an artificial neural network – a multilayered perception to allocate the potential areas for urban development. Parishes with the highest urban pressure were identified using a cluster analysis. These were compared with areas expected to be urbanized (defined in the master plan). Results suggest an increasing farming intensity in the A0 scenario, and an urban growth increase of more than 40% in the B0 scenario, with negative impacts on farming expansion. The outcomes can be applied to spatial planning instruments in order to assist planners to define land transformation priorities and adjust them to spatial trends. |
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Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentionsFarmers’ LUCC intentionsUrban growthANN-MPLCluster analysisSpatial planningDecisions about future land use are complex and involve a wide range of factors. The perceptions, intentions, and interests of the stakeholders involved are usually unpredictable. Different stakeholders manage land by choosing different future options and revealing different expectations. Greater proximity to built-up areas confronts farmers with challenges about future land use and land cover change (LUCC). This study aims to identify how external drivers can affect farmers’ future LUCC intentions focusing on conversion of agricultural land to urban development. We explore two scenarios projected for the time horizon of 2025 based on farmers’ LUCC intentions: A0 – current social and economic trend; and B0 – increasing demand for urban development. We selected the Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal) as case study, an area predominantly agricultural but with a progressively urban intensification in the past two decades. We conducted interviews to capture the farmers’ LUCC intentions and modelled an artificial neural network – a multilayered perception to allocate the potential areas for urban development. Parishes with the highest urban pressure were identified using a cluster analysis. These were compared with areas expected to be urbanized (defined in the master plan). Results suggest an increasing farming intensity in the A0 scenario, and an urban growth increase of more than 40% in the B0 scenario, with negative impacts on farming expansion. The outcomes can be applied to spatial planning instruments in order to assist planners to define land transformation priorities and adjust them to spatial trends.ElsevierRepositório da Universidade de LisboaGomes, EduardoAbrantes, PatríciaBanos, ArnaudRocha, JorgeBuxton, Michael2020-04-08T17:33:06Z20192019-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/42801engGomes, E., Abrantes, P., Banos, A., Rocha, J., & Buxton, M. (2019). Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions. Applied geography, 102, p. 58-70. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.0090143-622810.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.0091873-7730metadata only accessinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-11-08T16:42:56Zoai:repositorio.ul.pt:10451/42801Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-19T21:55:45.119863Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
title |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
spellingShingle |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions Gomes, Eduardo Farmers’ LUCC intentions Urban growth ANN-MPL Cluster analysis Spatial planning |
title_short |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
title_full |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
title_fullStr |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
title_sort |
Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions |
author |
Gomes, Eduardo |
author_facet |
Gomes, Eduardo Abrantes, Patrícia Banos, Arnaud Rocha, Jorge Buxton, Michael |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Abrantes, Patrícia Banos, Arnaud Rocha, Jorge Buxton, Michael |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gomes, Eduardo Abrantes, Patrícia Banos, Arnaud Rocha, Jorge Buxton, Michael |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Farmers’ LUCC intentions Urban growth ANN-MPL Cluster analysis Spatial planning |
topic |
Farmers’ LUCC intentions Urban growth ANN-MPL Cluster analysis Spatial planning |
description |
Decisions about future land use are complex and involve a wide range of factors. The perceptions, intentions, and interests of the stakeholders involved are usually unpredictable. Different stakeholders manage land by choosing different future options and revealing different expectations. Greater proximity to built-up areas confronts farmers with challenges about future land use and land cover change (LUCC). This study aims to identify how external drivers can affect farmers’ future LUCC intentions focusing on conversion of agricultural land to urban development. We explore two scenarios projected for the time horizon of 2025 based on farmers’ LUCC intentions: A0 – current social and economic trend; and B0 – increasing demand for urban development. We selected the Torres Vedras municipality (Portugal) as case study, an area predominantly agricultural but with a progressively urban intensification in the past two decades. We conducted interviews to capture the farmers’ LUCC intentions and modelled an artificial neural network – a multilayered perception to allocate the potential areas for urban development. Parishes with the highest urban pressure were identified using a cluster analysis. These were compared with areas expected to be urbanized (defined in the master plan). Results suggest an increasing farming intensity in the A0 scenario, and an urban growth increase of more than 40% in the B0 scenario, with negative impacts on farming expansion. The outcomes can be applied to spatial planning instruments in order to assist planners to define land transformation priorities and adjust them to spatial trends. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 2020-04-08T17:33:06Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42801 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10451/42801 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
Gomes, E., Abrantes, P., Banos, A., Rocha, J., & Buxton, M. (2019). Farming under urban pressure: Farmers' land use and land cover change intentions. Applied geography, 102, p. 58-70. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.009 0143-6228 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.12.009 1873-7730 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
metadata only access info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
metadata only access |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
instacron_str |
RCAAP |
institution |
RCAAP |
reponame_str |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
collection |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
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1799134498662645760 |