The effects of quantitative easing on U.S. inflation and output

• Autor(a) principal: Ribeiro, André Manuel da Silva
• Data de Publicação: 2020
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/21491
• topic: Monetary policy; Quantitative easing; United States; Inflation; Industrial production; Política monetária; Estados Unidos; Inflação; Produção industrial

The present dissertation aims to provide insight on how Quantitative Easing Programs impacts both GDP and CPI, specifically, how the purchase of securities ranging from U.S. Treasury Securities to Mortgaged-backed Securities (i.e., MBS) impact said variables. It focuses on the post-crisis period between the second quarter of 2009 and the last quarter of 2019, using U.S. Federal Reserve data resources. It uses monthly data collected for six time-series, giving a total of 129 observations (N=129) for each. Using a Vector Auto-Regressive (i.e., VAR) approach, this dissertation concluded that Q.E. triggers a response in both Industrial Production and CPI, persistent for at least 15 lag periods. This response is stronger for Industrial Production, having a comparatively weak impact on CPI. The nature of this impact (i.e., positive or negative) could not be definitely inferred, as, across the 15-lag period, the behavior was mostly intermittent. However, for Industrial Production the sign of the response ended on a positive value for M.B.S and U.S. Treasury Securities maturing in 5 to 10 Years. For CPI all the U.S. Treasury securities and M.B.S ended on a positive value, with the exception of the U.S. Treasury Securities Maturing in 10 Years. Thus, the claim that Q.E. Programs do not trigger any type of response at either the Industrial Production or CPI level is safely rejected.