Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2008 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/12442 |
Resumo: | Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher–Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now. |
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Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigmPrimary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher–Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.Authors Tessaleno Devezas, Joao C.O. Matias and Abılio M.P. Silva wish to thank the Portuguese Fundacao de Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT), which supported (through the Unity of R&D no. 151) the present investigation.uBibliorumDevezas, TessalenoLePoire, DavidMatias, JoãoSilva, Abílio2022-12-05T10:51:36Z20082008-01-01T00:00:00Zinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/12442eng10.1016/j.futures.2007.06.005info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãoinstacron:RCAAP2023-12-15T09:55:37Zoai:ubibliorum.ubi.pt:10400.6/12442Portal AgregadorONGhttps://www.rcaap.pt/oai/openaireopendoar:71602024-03-20T00:52:02.857501Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informaçãofalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
title |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
spellingShingle |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm Devezas, Tessaleno |
title_short |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
title_full |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
title_fullStr |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
title_full_unstemmed |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
title_sort |
Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm |
author |
Devezas, Tessaleno |
author_facet |
Devezas, Tessaleno LePoire, David Matias, João Silva, Abílio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
LePoire, David Matias, João Silva, Abílio |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
uBibliorum |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Devezas, Tessaleno LePoire, David Matias, João Silva, Abílio |
description |
Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher–Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now. |
publishDate |
2008 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2008 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z 2022-12-05T10:51:36Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/12442 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.6/12442 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
10.1016/j.futures.2007.06.005 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
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reponame:Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) instname:Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação instacron:RCAAP |
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Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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RCAAP |
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RCAAP |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) |
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Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos) - Agência para a Sociedade do Conhecimento (UMIC) - FCT - Sociedade da Informação |
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1799136408825233408 |