Exponential forecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts in Bulgaria

• Autor(a) principal: Dimitrov, Preslav
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Outros Autores: Kalinova, Maria, Gantchev, Gantcho, Nikolov, Chavdar
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (Repositórios Cientìficos)
• Texto Completo: https://tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/764
• topic: Forecasting, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters method, monthly tourism receipts.

In Compliance with the annual Act for the State Budget, theBulgarian Ministry of Finance usually makes twice a year aninternal budget restructuring in the budgets of the separateMinistries and State Agencies of the Bulgarian State. What is inintriguing in this internal budget restructuring is that it is usuallydone in the months when the tourism receipts in the form of ValueAdded Tax turnovers are usually accumulated by the Bulgarian thetax administration. The need of proper forecasts that couldeventually justify or reject such a hidden harvesting policy hasnever been examined and put to the public attention. The presentpaper regards several major problems in the application of theexponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-runforecasting of the monthly volume of the tourism receipts inBulgaria. These problems include: (i) the problem of determiningthe time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) theselection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of shortrunand long-run forecasts; (iv) the comparison of the results of theforecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. As aresult the Holt-Winters method is applied with the conclusion thatthe produced forecasts could trigger a process a more financiallyautonomous national tourism administration that will allow agreater part of the collected tax revenues for the tourism sector tobe returned into the tourism industry in a form of publicinvestments through this very same more autonomous nationaltourism administration.